Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-04 09:16Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures, covering the period up to July 4, 2025 [2] - The author of the report is Liao Hongbin, with a futures investment consulting license number Z0020723 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mainly fluctuated this week. The main contract EC2508 rose 3.01%, while the far - month contracts had returns ranging from - 1% to - 2%. The spot price index continued to improve, supporting the futures price of the main contract [6][38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2123.24, up 186.1 points from last week, a 9.6% increase [6][38] - In the US, the June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. The market abandoned the bet on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. It is currently expected that the Fed will start cutting rates in October and cut rates by 51 basis points by the end of the year [6][38] - The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was still under pressure. The container capacity of leading shipping companies maintained a high - growth trend, and the global capacity supply continued to rise. Excess capacity was a major pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of the shipping industry's prosperity in 2025. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term [6][38] - Whether the trade war will improve as expected in the long term remains to be observed. July is an important window period for tariff renegotiation. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, tariff, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][38] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2508 contract's trading volume and open interest both increased [12][15] - The table shows the week - on - week changes, closing prices, etc. of different futures contracts and the spot index [9] 2. News Review and Analysis - The Ministry of Commerce's response to the report of the US President's potential visit to China with a business delegation was neutral in impact [18] - The US Congress passing the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was considered a bearish factor [18] - Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and the US President's trade - related announcements were generally considered to have a neutral impact [18] - The EU - US trade agreement negotiation was in the final stage, and the overall impact was considered neutral [18] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts declined this week, and the spread converged [23] - The export container freight rate index fluctuated upward this week [26] - Container capacity continued to rise. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [29] - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded slightly this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly fluctuated [32] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mainly fluctuated this week. The main contract EC2508 rose 3.01%, and far - month contracts had negative returns. The spot price index improvement supported the main contract's futures price [38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index increased by 9.6% week - on - week [38] - The US economic data affected the market's expectations for the Fed's rate cuts [38] - The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was under pressure. Excess capacity limited the shipping industry's recovery, while the spot price recovery may drive short - term futures price increases [38] - Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data during the important tariff negotiation window period in July [38]