2025年6月美国非农数据点评：政府就业回升不可持续，美国非农弱势渐显

Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000 and the revised previous value of 144,000[11] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[11] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9% and revised previous increase of 3.8%[11] Government vs. Private Sector Employment - Government jobs contributed nearly half of the new employment, with 73,000 jobs added, significantly higher than the previous month's 7,000[15] - Private sector employment weakened, with service sector jobs dropping from 141,000 to 68,000, indicating potential economic pressure from tariff disruptions[18] - Retail sector employment rebounded slightly, adding 2,000 jobs compared to a loss of 7,000 in the previous month[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, down from 62.4% in the previous month, with a notable decline in youth employment willingness[27] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.7% from 7.8%[32] - Permanent unemployment decreased by 29,000, while temporary job losses also declined, suggesting stability in the job market[32] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the unsustainable rise in government employment and the risk of weakening non-farm data, the probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in the second half of 2025 is significant[20] - Market expectations indicate a 60% chance of a rate cut in September 2025, with only a 5.2% chance in July[22]