“反内卷”信号释放，美国非农又超预期

Domestic Highlights - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to expansion[10] - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax credit policy for foreign investors reinvesting profits in China, effective from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, allowing a 10% tax credit on eligible reinvestments[9] - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two重" construction projects, which are expected to stabilize domestic demand growth in the second half of 2025[14][15] International Highlights - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, projected to increase the national debt by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade[19] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, leading to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts in July[23][25] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchased 20.02 billion HKD to defend the local currency as it hit the weak end of its peg against the U.S. dollar[21][22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 2.13% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices increased by 1.73% and 1.95%, respectively[26] - Rebar prices rose by 0.72%, while cement prices fell by 1.37% week-on-week, indicating mixed trends in the construction materials market[32]