Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 737.8 billion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.4 percentage points compared to April. The new installed capacity of power equipment was 124.41 million kilowatts, a significant year - on - year increase of 364%. The new energy sector witnessed large - scale rush installations, which overdrafted the far - month installation demand to some extent. The total social electricity consumption reached 809.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, basically in line with expectations, but the manufacturing industry continued to show signs of pressure [1][7][11][14][47]. - Looking forward, the high temperature in June hit a record high for the same period, and with the implementation of policies such as trade - in, domestic demand is expected to support the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry. However, under the background of weak exports, the electricity consumption growth rate of the secondary industry may continue to be under pressure, and the overall electricity consumption growth rate is expected to be the same as that in May. During the peak summer period, the temperature in July is expected to be close to or slightly higher than the normal level, but lower than the extreme value in 2024. The tight balance between supply and demand has eased, and the electricity consumption growth rate may be lower than that of the same period last year. The annual electricity consumption growth rate is expected to remain at 5.9% [1][15][47]. - In July, the agency - purchased electricity prices in most provinces continued to decline. In terms of month - on - month comparison, 45% of the provinces saw price increases and 55% saw decreases; year - on - year, about 70% of the provinces had downward prices. Although the primary energy prices have stabilized, the cost side has limited support for electricity prices. The supply and demand of thermal coal will remain relatively loose, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly, so the price drive is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industries and the progress of port inventory reduction, and the overall trend is weak and volatile [2][18][47]. - In June, the prices in the officially - operated electricity spot markets generally declined. In July, the electricity spot price in Guangdong may strengthen seasonally, but the year - on - year decline may widen, and the monthly average price center is expected to move down to the range of 305 - 325 yuan/MWh [2][3][48]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. National Market: Supply Increases, Demand Stabilizes, and Electricity Prices Decline 1.1 Power Supply and Demand: Electricity Demand Continues to Recover, and the Effect of New Energy Rush Installations is Significant - In May, the power production of industrial enterprises above designated size grew steadily, but the growth rate slowed down compared to April. From January to May, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3726.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. After deducting the leap - year days in 2024, the average daily power generation increased by 1.0% year - on - year [7]. - By power source, thermal power generation was 461.5 billion kWh, with a year - on - year increase from a decline; hydropower generation was 99.1 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3%, and the decline expanded by 7.8 percentage points compared to April; wind power generation was 91.7 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 11%, and the growth rate slowed down by 1.7 percentage points compared to April; photovoltaic power generation was 47.1 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, but the growth rate slowed down by 9.4 percentage points compared to April; nuclear power generation was 38.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate slowed down by 5.7 percentage points compared to April [7]. - In May, the new installed capacity of national power equipment was 124.41 million kilowatts, a significant year - on - year increase of 364%. Structurally, affected by the difference in mechanism electricity prices between existing and incremental projects in Document No. 136, there was a large - scale rush installation of new energy, which overdrafted the far - month installation demand to some extent. Among them, the new installed photovoltaic capacity was 92.92 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 388%; the new installed wind power capacity was 26.32 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 801%. In addition, thermal power installation continued to grow at a high rate, with a new installation of 4.57 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 55%. The new installed hydropower capacity was only 600,000 kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 17%, and there was no new nuclear power unit put into operation in May [11]. - In May 2025, the total social electricity consumption reached 809.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and the growth rate declined by 0.3 percentage points compared to April. From January to May, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 3966.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In terms of industrial electricity consumption, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 1.19 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%; the secondary industry was 541.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; the tertiary industry was 155 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; and the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 101.3 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. Overall, the electricity demand growth rate in May was basically in line with expectations, but the manufacturing industry continued to show signs of pressure [14]. - Looking forward, the high temperature in June will further drive the electricity consumption growth of residents and the tertiary industry. With the continuous implementation of policies such as trade - in, domestic demand is expected to be supported, and the consumption recovery trend will continue. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. However, the electricity consumption growth rate of the secondary industry may continue to be under pressure, and the overall electricity consumption growth rate is expected to be roughly the same as that in May. During the peak summer period, the electricity demand growth rate may be lower than that of the same period last year. The annual electricity consumption growth rate is expected to remain at 5.9% [15]. 1.2 Agency - Purchased Electricity Prices: Most Provinces Show a Downward Trend - In July 2025, the agency - purchased electricity prices in most provinces continued to decline. Month - on - month, 45% of the provinces had price increases and 55% had decreases. Among them, 15 provinces had month - on - month increases with a mild increase of less than 10%; 18 provinces had month - on - month decreases, and affected by the abundant water period in the southwest region, Sichuan and Yunnan had significant decreases of 30% and 11% respectively. Year - on - year, about 30% of the provinces had price increases and 70% had decreases. A total of 23 provinces had year - on - year decreases, represented by Zhejiang and Sichuan; 10 provinces had year - on - year increases, with Qinghai having the most significant increase. Overall, four provinces, Chongqing, Qinghai, Hainan, and Guangxi, achieved "double growth" both month - on - month and year - on - year [18]. - Nationally, as the peak summer period approaches, the peak - valley electricity price difference in July generally widened compared to June. Many provinces have implemented the peak - hour electricity price mechanism, and in the provinces with price increases, the peak - valley difference in many places expanded by more than 20%; in the downward provinces, the decreases in Gansu, Sichuan, Yunnan and other places exceeded 10%. Among the 29 provinces (regions) counted, 20 provinces had an upward trend in the peak - valley price difference. As of July, 13 provinces had a peak - valley price difference of more than 0.7 yuan/kWh [20]. 1.3 Primary Energy Prices: Peak Summer Drives Inventory Reduction, and the Loose Supply - Demand Pattern May Continue - The primary energy prices have stabilized but are difficult to continue, and the cost side still has limited upward driving force for electricity prices. For thermal coal, the structural differentiation among different coal types is prominent. The prices of some low - calorie coal sources have slightly increased, but the downstream procurement willingness is low, and the downstream demand has not fundamentally changed. Coupled with the continuous decline in imported coal prices, the increase in domestic coal prices is suppressed. Looking forward, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain relatively loose, and the price may still be volatile and weak. At the mine mouth, with the phased adjustment of supply, the contradiction of structural coal shortage has led to price adjustments for some coal types, but the overall recovery degree remains to be observed. At the port, although the port inventory reduction process is continuing, the release of cargo orders is mainly for long - term contract fulfillment, and the market trading activity is still limited [23]. 1.4 Power Policies: Provincial Implementing Rules of Document No. 136 are Released, and the Construction of the Electricity Spot Market Continues to Accelerate - On the one hand, many places such as Shandong, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia have successively issued provincial implementing rules for Document No. 136, clearly defining the mechanism electricity prices and quantities. For existing projects, they are mainly connected with the current policies, and the mechanism electricity prices are basically the same as the benchmark coal - fired electricity price; for incremental projects, the upper and lower limits of the mechanism electricity prices are clearly set. Among them, the incremental projects in Inner Mongolia (western and eastern regions) will no longer be included in the mechanism electricity quantity range, and the bidding work for the mechanism electricity prices is expected to start successively in the second half of the year [26]. - On the other hand, the construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating. Since June 1, the Jiangsu electricity spot market has entered the long - cycle settlement trial operation stage, aiming to achieve continuous settlement trial operation in September. On June 6, the Hubei electricity spot market was officially launched, becoming the sixth provincial market in China to achieve official operation. On June 29, the South China regional electricity market entered the continuous settlement trial operation stage, marking a key step in the construction of the national unified electricity market [28]. 2. Regional Power Markets: Spot Prices Decline Year - on - Year, and Medium - and Long - Term Prices Strengthen Seasonally 2.1 Guangdong: Abundant Water Supply May Suppress Electricity Prices, Pay Attention to Price Game in the South China Unified Market - In June, the average transaction price in the day - ahead spot market in Guangdong continued to decline. The average transaction price on the power generation side was 296.6 yuan/MWh, a month - on - month decrease of 8.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The average transaction price of coal - fired units was about 294 yuan/MWh, a month - on - month decrease of 9.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.8%; the average transaction price of gas - fired units was about 351.4 yuan/MWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 10.6% [29]. - In June, the power generation cost of coal - fired units increased slightly compared to May but remained at a low level. The monthly electricity cost was about 365.6 yuan/MWh, a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/MWh. Although the spot coal price was weakly volatile, the long - term contract coal price increased by 12.8 yuan/ton, pushing up the overall cost. The natural gas price is expected to be bottom - volatile, and it is difficult to significantly increase the gas - fired power cost in the short term [32]. - In June, the electricity load in Guangdong rebounded. The average daily load of unified - regulated units was 117,148 MW, a seasonal month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The average temperature in the province was 0.2°C higher than the normal level, and the cooling load was continuously high. The abundant water supply promoted the continuous power transmission of electricity from the west to the east, and the average daily power transmission load was 35,822 MW, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Affected by the increase in external electricity, the load of provincial market - oriented units decreased month - on - month [34]. - Looking forward to July, the electricity spot price in Guangdong may strengthen seasonally, but the year - on - year decline may widen, and the monthly average price center is expected to move down to the range of 305 - 325 yuan/MWh. On the supply side, the power transmission scale of electricity from the west to the east is expected to be "moderately high". The water supply in the Lancang River Basin is good, and the power transmission capacity of key power stations such as Xiaowan and Nuozhadu is expected to remain high. Although the water supply in the Jinsha River Basin is weak, the Xiluodu Power Station has sufficient water storage, and the overall power transmission volume is expected to remain at a high level. On the demand side, the average temperature in most parts of Guangdong is expected to be slightly higher in July, which will support the electricity demand. However, affected by macro - uncertainty factors, the electricity consumption growth rate of the second industry has certain pressure, and the possibility of the overall electricity demand exceeding expectations is limited. In addition, with the operation of the South China regional electricity spot market, Guangdong, as the receiving province, will face more intense market competition, and the spot electricity price center still has downward pressure [38][39]. 2.2 Other Major Markets: Spot Prices Decline, and the Medium - and Long - Term Prices in Some Provinces are Restored - In June, except for individual regions, the prices in the officially - operated electricity spot markets generally declined. The real - time market average price in Shanxi was 314.6 yuan/MWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; in Shandong, it was 316 yuan/MWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%; in Gansu, it was 175.1 yuan/MWh, a month - on - month decrease of 26.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.6%; in Inner Mongolia (western region), it was 377 yuan/MWh, a month - on - month increase of 98.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.6%. The significant increase in the price in Inner Mongolia (western region) was mainly affected by factors such as rising temperatures, increasing external power transmission, and decreasing wind power output after the end of the windy season [41]. - In terms of medium - and long - term prices, Guangdong continued to operate close to the floor price, and the monthly medium - and long - term price in July was 372.4 yuan/MWh; the price in Shandong remained stable at 371.8 yuan/MWh. In Jiangsu, the medium - and long - term price in June was significantly low due to the pessimistic market sentiment towards the opening of the spot market at the end of May. In July, the price rebounded significantly, and the monthly medium - and long - term average transaction price increased to 395.6 yuan/MWh, still a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The medium - and long - term price in Inner Mongolia (western region) rebounded to 305 yuan/MWh, a typical seasonal rebound, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [41].
电力月度数据报告：电价承压延续，市场化改革步入深水区-20250704
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-04 11:23