全球宏观：强劲非农数据支持美联储观望立场

Global Macro - The strong non-farm payroll data for June shows an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 110,000, and the previous value was revised up from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, slightly below the expected 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2% [1] - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, providing more policy space amid ongoing pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 26.7% to 4.3% and the September cut probability slightly decreasing from 69.1% to 62.4% [1] Employment Analysis - The ADP report earlier indicated a decline of 33,000 jobs, highlighting a key difference as it only accounts for private sector employment, excluding government jobs [2] - Government sector added 73,000 jobs, contributing half of the non-farm employment increase, primarily from state and local governments, while federal employment decreased by 7,000 [2] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly to 74,000, down from 137,000 in May, with most growth in lower-skilled sectors such as education and healthcare [2][3] - The labor force participation rate has declined for three consecutive months, contributing to the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The decrease in labor supply due to reduced immigration and government layoffs has led to a tighter labor market, particularly affecting low-skilled labor supply [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The unexpected strong non-farm data significantly reduces the urgency for rate cuts in the short term, with July lacking sufficient justification for a cut [4] - Future rate cuts may depend on inflation data, with the next potential window for a cut possibly in the fourth quarter as tariff-related inflation effects dissipate [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a patient approach in assessing data changes, avoiding aggressive policy adjustments in a high uncertainty environment [4]