上海证券2025年7月基金投资策略：美元走弱、市场重塑，该如何做资产配置

Core Insights - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, revealing its vulnerabilities under the uncertainty of US policies. Issues such as regionalism, inflation, debt pressure, and structured risks in asset valuations are still unfolding. The continuous depreciation of the US dollar has made European and emerging markets more attractive to capital, while precious metals like gold have seen significant price increases, indicating a reshaping of the global market. In response to the current market environment, it is advised to focus on certainty and make asset allocations based on a high safety margin [1][16][21]. Market Overview - As of June 29, 2025, global equity assets performed well, with MSCI global returns at 4.01% and emerging markets at 6.15%, slightly outperforming developed markets. The domestic market also showed strong performance, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 3.13%, particularly driven by growth stocks which rose by 4.87% [7][13]. - The global economic pressure remains significant, with manufacturing PMI in some regions still below the expansion threshold, indicating risks of a peak in the global economic growth cycle. Concurrently, US stocks have seen valuations driven up by AI and buybacks, which has weakened corporate resilience [19][20]. Asset Allocation Strategy - Equity Funds: The strategy should focus on a "core + opportunities" approach, balancing safety and returns. Core allocations should prioritize high earnings certainty, high profits, and high dividends, while opportunity allocations should leverage policy implementation, confidence-driven investments, and technology empowerment [3][30]. - Fixed Income Funds: It is recommended to lower expectations while seeking stable returns. Mid to short-duration funds are seen as more cost-effective, as the market's excessive pursuit of long-duration bonds has diminished their risk-return profile [3][4]. - QDII Funds: Attention should be paid to marginal changes affecting expectations. For equity QDII, caution is advised regarding structured valuation risks, while for oil QDII, geopolitical factors are becoming increasingly significant. Gold QDII is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [4][37][40]. Domestic Economic Insights - The domestic economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, driven by consumption and exports. Industrial value-added growth was steady at 5.8%, with significant contributions from sectors like new energy vehicles and robotics [21][28]. - Consumer spending has been robust, with retail sales in May growing by 6.4% year-on-year, supported by government subsidies and promotional activities. However, structural income disparities remain a challenge for sustained consumption growth [26][28]. Commodity Market Dynamics - Geopolitical issues and inflation have been influencing global commodity prices. The escalation of conflicts has pushed oil prices higher, while the depreciation of the dollar has led to fluctuations in gold prices. Future trading logic for oil and gold will likely continue to be driven by geopolitical and risk-averse sentiments [37][49]. - The long-term stability of oil prices will depend on global economic growth and demand, with current PMI data indicating potential declines in demand. The supply side, particularly OPEC+ production decisions, will also play a crucial role in short-term price movements [45][49].