Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal and live hog futures markets lack clear guidance, with soybean meal showing narrow - range fluctuations [1][2]. - The price trends of soybean meal and live hogs are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic indicators [17][18][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined by 0.14% to 2954 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main contract 2509 decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 14305 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live hogs was 15.29 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract closed flat at 1048 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, there will be rainfall in some areas in the next few days, which may help improve crop growth. Before Monday, there will be regional to scattered showers in both the western and eastern parts, with temperatures close to or higher than normal. From Tuesday to Wednesday, the weather will be mostly dry, and there will be scattered showers from Thursday to Saturday. Temperatures will be close to normal from Tuesday to Thursday and close to or higher than normal on Friday and Saturday [3]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending July 1, about 8% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought (down from 12% the previous week and compared to 9% last year), 12% of US corn planting areas (down from 16% the previous week and compared to 8% last year), and 3% of US cotton planting areas (unchanged from the previous week and compared to 24% last year) [5]. - On July 4, the import cost of US soybeans was 4586 yuan, up 18 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3872 yuan, down 3 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3688 yuan, up 17 yuan [5]. - On July 3, the total sales volume of soybean meal by major oil mills in China was 16.59 tons, a decrease of 28.88 tons from the previous day. The spot sales volume was 4.41 tons, an increase of 1.04 tons, and the far - month basis sales volume was 12.18 tons, a decrease of 29.92 tons. The national average oil mill operating rate was 64.48%, down 2.11% from the previous day [5]. - For the week ending June 26, 2025, the US 2024/25 soybean meal sales volume was 306,200 tons, significantly higher than the previous week and 69% higher than the four - week average. The 2025/26 net sales volume was 397,400 tons, compared to 166,100 tons a week ago [6]. - Argentina completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest with a final output of 50.3 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous year [6]. - As of the week ending June 29, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 47.16% to 173,500 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase compared to the same period last year. As of June 29, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [6]. - As of July 3, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut was 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 33%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 64%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 3% [8]. - The strong US non - farm payroll data led the market to abandon bets on a July rate cut. In June, non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised up from 139,000 to 144,000. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. The interest rate futures market believes the probability of a July Fed rate cut is close to zero [8]. - The US ISM Services PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 and the previous value of 49.9. The employment index contracted, while business activity and orders rebounded [8]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live hog prices in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [12][13][16][17]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: US soybean futures prices rose to a nearly two - week high due to short - covering and position adjustment before the US Independence Day holiday, but the gains narrowed at the end of the session. The good US crop weather, sufficient global supply, and expected Brazilian harvest limited the market's upside. In the next two weeks, the warm weather and sporadic rainfall in the US Midwest will benefit soybean growth. The current upward trend of US soybeans highly depends on potential policy implementation. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 contract lacks external market guidance, and its rebound is limited by the loose spot supply. The upper resistance level is around 2980, and there is strong support in the 2900 - 2920 range. The large arrival of soybeans and high - temperature weather have led to high oil mill operating rates, increasing the soybean meal inventory pressure. However, downstream feed enterprises' relatively high inventory levels and acceptable提货 enthusiasm may cause the spot basis to enter the regression channel earlier. The market is also focused on Sino - US trade trends, and if the purchase of US soybeans resumes, it may weaken the expected supply gap in the fourth quarter and put pressure on the far - month basis [18]. - Live Hogs: At the supply end, farmers are holding back on sales at the beginning of the month, and the average slaughter weight has decreased, resulting in a short - term reduction in supply. However, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter, and there is a risk of supply delay. At the demand end, high temperatures have suppressed consumers' willingness to buy pork, slowing down the terminal sales and leading to a decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate. Overall, the short - term supply reduction and the entry of secondary fattening have boosted the near - month live hog prices, while the pressure on supply delay has led to a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term prices [19][20].
豆粕生猪：市场缺乏指引，连粕窄幅震荡
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-07-04 11:19