冠通研究：原油：高开下行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the US military's intervention in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the market focused on Iran's retaliatory actions, which increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, Trump's statements and Iran's weak retaliatory actions and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down the geopolitical risks and alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. Still, the subsequent development of the Middle East situation needs attention [1] - Fundamentally, crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, US crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level, and OPEC+ production increases have fallen short of expectations, leading to a marginal improvement in crude oil supply - demand. But the OPEC+ meeting is about to discuss accelerating production increases, and US crude oil and gasoline inventories have unexpectedly increased. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Lightly buy crude oil put options. With the cooling of Middle East geopolitical risks, the OPEC+ meeting approaching to discuss accelerating production increases, and the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, cautious operation is advised [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.04% to 503.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 502.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 509.2 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1408 to 25655 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. EIA lowered the 2026 US crude oil production forecast by 120,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day, and raised the 2025 global oil inventory increase from 4,000 barrels per day to 8,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts by 20,000 barrels per day to 720,000 and 740,000 barrels per day respectively [3] - On the evening of July 2, US EIA data showed that for the week ending June 27, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.809 million barrels), 9.30% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 4.188 million barrels (expected to decrease by 236,000 barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 1.71 million barrels (expected to decrease by 960,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 1.493 million barrels [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's April crude oil production was raised by 128,000 barrels per day to 26.838 million barrels per day, and its May 2025 production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 27.022 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in Saudi production. US crude oil production in the week ending June 27 decreased by 200 barrels per day to 13.433 million barrels per day, 198,000 barrels per day lower than the record high in early December last year [4] - US crude oil product four - week average supply increased to 20.288 million barrels per day, but decreased by 2.93% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 10.82% to 8.64 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.199 million barrels per day, a 0.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased by 6.56% to 4.043 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.74 million barrels per day, a 0.55% increase compared to the same period last year. The large decrease in gasoline demand led to a 0.13% decrease in US crude oil product single - week supply [4]