需求进入疲弱期

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The supply and demand of urea are both weak. The market is affected by export quota news and coal cost rebound, showing a short - term upward trend, but operations require caution [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed low on July 4, 2025, with strong intraday consolidation. The market transaction was weakly stable, and downstream was not enthusiastic about taking orders after the price increase. Supply decreased due to temporary production capacity maintenance, with daily output below 200,000 tons. Agricultural demand will end next week, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer factories is mainly for rigid needs. Overall, demand is entering a weak period [1] Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,740 yuan/ton, closed at 1,735 yuan/ton, with a gain of +0.12%. The trading volume was 210,822 lots (-11,370 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 194 lots and short positions decreased by 3,259 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot market transaction was weakly stable, and downstream was not enthusiastic about taking orders after the price increase. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mainly in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On July 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 500, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis - The spot market's mainstream quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 75 yuan/ton (+12 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - On July 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 83.31% [11]