固定收益深度报告：关税缓和，经济动能增强，转债稳中求进

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond price is steadily recovering, and the convertible bond index outperforms the equity index. The convertible bond market and equity market declined due to Trump's tariff hikes but gradually recovered. Multiple industries and individual bonds saw price increases, and the convertible bond valuation is differentiated with the overall conversion premium rate decreasing [3][103]. - The issuance pace of convertible bonds has slowed down, and the net financing amount is at a relatively low level. The pre - issuance scale varies among different industries, with the high - end manufacturing industry having a relatively large pre - issuance scale. The un - converted balance of convertible bonds also shows significant differences among industries [3][103]. - The tariff disturbance is coming to an end, and the negative impact of tariffs on the convertible bond market will fade. The US is facing inflation pressure, and it has started economic and trade consultations with many countries, so high tariffs are expected to be unsustainable [3][76][103]. - Policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption are frequently introduced. As the policy effects continue to emerge, the upward trend of relevant convertible bonds is expected to continue. The growth rate of necessary consumption is constantly recovering, and the "trade - in" policy promotes the consumption growth of household appliances and communication equipment [4][104]. - The profitability of multiple underlying stock industries has improved, and the net profit of individual bonds has increased, further enhancing the intrinsic value of convertible bonds. Most underlying stock industries have positive median net profit growth rates both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year [6][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bonds: Price Steadily Recovering, Individual Bond Valuation Volatility and Differentiation - The convertible bond and equity indexes first declined and then rose, and the bond yield fluctuated downward: Affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff", the domestic equity market declined in the second quarter and then gradually recovered. The bond market yield showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy [10][11]. - The convertible bond and equity indexes are highly correlated, and the convertible bond index outperforms the equity index: The convertible bond market index and the equity market index have a similar trend, and the convertible bond index has a higher return rate. The convertible bond index also shows a certain correlation with the bond yield [15][16]. - Multiple convertible bond industries rose, and the rise - fall direction is consistent with that of the underlying stocks: Most convertible bond industries showed an upward trend, and the rise - fall amplitude of convertible bond industries was relatively less differentiated compared to that of underlying stock industries [22]. - Most individual bond prices rose, and the proportion of rising bonds in many industries exceeded half: Most convertible bonds rose compared to the previous quarter. In different industries, the number of rising convertible bonds was large, and the price fluctuations of individual convertible bonds were relatively large [25]. - The convertible bond valuation is differentiated, and the overall conversion premium rate is decreasing: The conversion premium rate of most individual bonds is decreasing, and there is no significant correlation between the conversion premium rate and the bond balance. The different quantiles of the conversion premium rate of individual bonds have all decreased [29]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Net Financing is at a Low Level, and the Supply Pace is Slowing Down - The issuance of convertible bonds has slowed down, and the net financing is at a low level in the same period: The issuance scale of convertible bonds has decreased, and the net financing amount is at a low level. The maturity scale of convertible bonds is relatively stable and at a low level [35]. - The pre - issuance of different industries is differentiated, and the high - end manufacturing industry has a large scale: The pre - issuance scale of convertible bonds is relatively sufficient, and there are significant differences among different industries. The high - end manufacturing industry has a relatively high pre - issuance scale [37]. - The proportion of un - converted balance of convertible bonds is relatively high, and there are significant industry differences: Most convertible bonds still have a relatively high balance. The proportion of the convertible bond balance to the initial issuance scale varies greatly among different industries [38]. 3.3 Tariff Disturbance is Approaching the End, and the External Negative Impact on the Convertible Bond Market is Fading - Trump imposed tariffs randomly, covering goods from multiple countries and multiple fields: Trump's government imposed several rounds of tariffs on goods exported to the US in 2025, involving goods from multiple countries and a wide range of products [43]. - Tariffs impacted the equity and convertible bond indexes to decline and then gradually recovered steadily: Trump's tariff hikes caused a sharp decline in the US equity market index, an increase in the demand for bond hedging, and a decrease in the US Treasury bond yield. As the tariffs eased, the US stock index gradually recovered, and the US Treasury bond yield gradually rebounded. In China, the A - share market, Treasury bond yield, and convertible bond market index also declined due to tariff impacts but gradually recovered [48][49][52]. - Exports increased against the trend, and the impact of tariffs on investment and consumption has not yet appeared: In terms of trade, the export growth rate continued to increase, and the import growth rate continued to improve. In terms of production, the growth rate of industrial added value was not significantly affected by tariffs, but the manufacturing PMI was significantly affected. In terms of investment, the impact of tariffs on fixed - asset investment and its main components has not yet appeared. The consumption growth rate increased marginally, and the consumer and producer price indexes decreased marginally [56][60][62]. - Tariffs are unsustainable, and the external impact on the convertible bond market is expected to fade: Trump's tariff hikes are likely a means to expand revenue, and the impact of tariffs in the first half of the year is expected to gradually subside. The US is facing inflation pressure, and high tariffs may prevent prices from falling. The US has conducted consultations on economic and trade issues with many countries, so high tariffs are not expected to last [76][77]. 3.4 Policies to Promote Consumption are Continuously Advancing, and the Upward Trend of Relevant Convertible Bonds is Expected to Continue - Favorable policies to promote consumption are frequently introduced, and the recovery progress of necessary consumption is accelerating: A series of favorable policies and specific measures to promote consumption have been introduced, and the support for consumption is extensive. The recovery progress of necessary consumption has accelerated, and the "trade - in" policy has promoted the consumption growth of household appliances and communication equipment [78][81][86]. - The convertible bond consumption sector as a whole rose, and the rise - fall of individual bonds is differentiated: Benefiting from the multiple favorable policies to promote consumption, the prices of convertible bonds in consumption - related fields generally increased, but the rise - fall of individual bonds was differentiated [90]. - The "trade - in" policy continues to advance, and attention should be paid to the over - heating risk of new consumption: The favorable policies to promote consumption are still advancing, and it is expected that consumption will remain an important engine for economic growth in the second half of the year. The continuous advancement of the "trade - in" policy is expected to continue to benefit the convertible bonds in related consumption fields. Attention should be paid to new consumption formats such as self - pleasing consumption and the "gacha economy", but the short - term over - heating risk should be noted [93][94][95]. 3.5 The Performance of Underlying Stocks has Improved, and the Intrinsic Value of Convertible Bonds may be Further Enhanced - The net profit of underlying stock industries has achieved positive growth, and the net profit of individual bond underlying stocks has improved overall: Most underlying stock industries have positive median net profit growth rates both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The net profit of individual bond underlying stocks has improved comprehensively compared to the previous quarter [96][99]. - Most underlying stocks have positive net profit growth, and their performance is moderate compared to listed companies in the same industry: Compared with listed companies in the same industry that have not issued convertible bonds, the net profit growth rate of convertible bond underlying stocks is moderate. The net profit growth rate of convertible bond underlying stocks is differentiated, and in some industries, most underlying stocks have positive net profit growth rates [101]. 3.6 Convertible Bond Strategy: It is Recommended to Focus on Convertible Bonds for Expanding Domestic Demand, High Dividends, and High Growth - It is recommended to focus on the following main lines in the convertible bond market: expanding domestic demand, especially in the fields related to boosting consumption; high - dividend sectors such as banks; and individual bonds with high - growth underlying stocks [6][106].