恒生科技板块投资价值分析：恒生科技指数在当前宏观环境下具备较高的投资价值

• The report introduces a timing strategy for the Hang Seng Tech Index based on the CDS indicator. The strategy uses the rolling 4-year z-score of the CDS level and the 20-day difference to assign scores and portfolio allocations. For example, when the CDS is declining and at a low level, 100% of the portfolio is allocated to the Hang Seng Tech Index. Conversely, when the CDS is rising and at a high level, no allocation is made to the index[10][11] - The timing strategy achieves an annualized excess return of 9.8% relative to the Hang Seng Tech Index, with an annualized volatility of 20.4%, a maximum drawdown of 34.3%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.80[10][16] - The report evaluates the macroeconomic environment using a six-cycle model based on monetary, credit, and growth factors. It identifies the current phase as "credit expansion (Stage 1)," which historically favors growth-oriented assets like the Hang Seng Tech Index. During this phase, the index demonstrates higher returns compared to other broad-based indices[14][17][19]