6月经济数据前瞻：经济或呈现低波运行

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is expected to be around 5.3%, close to Q1's 5.4%[3] - Industrial production growth for Q2 is projected at approximately 5.9%[3] - Retail sector growth is anticipated to rebound to about 6.8% in Q2, up from 5.8% in Q1[3] Production Insights - June's industrial growth rate is estimated at 6.0%[11] - The PMI production index for June increased to 51%, indicating expansion[4] - The wholesale growth rate for automobiles in June is expected to be 14.1%[4] Demand and Investment Trends - Social retail sales growth is projected to decline to around 4.6% in June, influenced by holiday timing and promotional activities[20] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half of the year is expected to be around 3.4%, with manufacturing investment at 8.1% and real estate investment at -11.2%[16] - Real estate sales area growth is anticipated to be -8.0% in June[17] Trade and Price Dynamics - Export growth for June is expected to be approximately 3.5%, while imports are projected to grow by 1%[14] - CPI for June is forecasted to be around 0% year-on-year, with PPI expected to remain at -3.3%[9][10] Financial Sector Outlook - New social financing in June is estimated at 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 600 billion yuan year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth is expected to be around 7.9% in June[5]