铜月报：宏观乐观情绪有所弱化-20250704

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the production of refined copper in China is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The substitution of scrap copper is expected to increase marginally, but increased exports may keep inventory relatively stable. Overseas demand is expected to be fair, but hidden inventory may become more explicit. Macro uncertainties may bring downward volatility risks to the market, increasing the pressure of phased shock adjustment on copper prices, with support coming from low inventory and tight raw material supply. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be 77,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 9,300 - 10,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to try short - selling on rebounds [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - Supply: The short - term supply - demand relationship of copper concentrates remains tight, but the long - term tightness is slightly weaker than expected. Domestic refined copper production remains high, and it is expected to rise in July [10] - Demand: In June, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China continued to grow rapidly, but the growth rate in July is expected to drop to near zero. Overseas manufacturing sentiment is improving marginally, and short - term demand is expected to be fair [10] - Import and Export: In June, the loss of SHFE copper imports dropped significantly. Feed - processing exports are expected to increase, and imports are expected to decrease [10] - Inventory: In June, SHFE and LME inventories decreased, while COMEX and bonded - area inventories increased. It is estimated that domestic inventory will be relatively stable in July, and overseas inventory will continue to increase [10] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: In June, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main SHFE copper contract rose 2.93%, and the LME 3M copper contract rose 4.01%. Factors such as tight copper supply outside the US, the US tax and spending bill, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts jointly pushed up copper prices. The US dollar index fell 2.7%, and the offshore RMB appreciated 0.69% [21] - Market Spreads: In June, the spot supply of LME copper was tight, and the spot premium rose significantly. The LME copper price outperformed the SHFE copper price. The loss of SHFE copper spot imports once exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton. The COMEX - LME copper spread widened further [24] - Inventory & Basis: As of the end of June, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 426,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the end of May. LME copper inventory continued to decrease in June and increased in July. COMEX copper inventory continued to rise. The LME Cash/3M premium once exceeded 300 US dollars/ton and dropped to around 100 US dollars/ton in early July. The domestic basis quote dropped to about 110 yuan/ton [27][30] - Fund Sentiment: As of the end of June, CFTC fund positions remained net long, with the net - long ratio rising to 11.3%. The LME investment fund's long - position ratio increased. In July, market sentiment is mainly affected by global trade, inventory changes, and US policy expectations [33] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Copper Ore: In May, copper production in Chile, the world's largest copper - producing country, remained at a multi - year high, and production in Peru was seasonally high in April. In June, Ivanhoe Mines lowered the annual production guidance of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine by about 150,000 tons. In June, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports decreased, and the processing fee TC continued to weaken, with the spot TC at - 44.8 US dollars/ton at the end of June. The semi - annual long - term TC between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters was set at 0 US dollars/ton [38][41] - Refined Copper: In June, domestic processing fees for blister copper were flat month - on - month, and the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, rose. Smelting maintenance increased in June, and domestic refined copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In July, smelting maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase by about 15,000 tons [44][48] - Recycled Copper: In June, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,350 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper improved. The operating rate of recycled - copper rod enterprises rebounded. In July, the substitution of scrap copper for electrolytic copper is expected to increase but with limited scope [51] 3.3.2 Demand - China: In June, domestic apparent consumption continued to grow rapidly year - on - year, with an estimated 1.357 million tons. The official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in June. The production of copper products increased by more than 6% in the first five months of 2025. The operating rates of copper product, copper rod, wire and cable, copper tube, and copper strip enterprises showed different trends. The demand for clean energy is expected to weaken marginally after the "531 New Policy". Real estate transactions improved marginally in June, and automobile sales were slightly weaker than last year [54][57][60] - Overseas: In June, the manufacturing sentiment of major overseas developed economies strengthened. According to ICSG data, global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year in April 2025, with a 3.8% increase from January to April [72] 3.4 Macro Analysis - In May, US employment data weakened slightly, and in June, new non - farm payrolls and the unemployment rate were better than expected. US inflation data stabilized and slightly increased in May. Short - term strong employment data in the US reduced the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, and previous trading based on rate - cut expectations may cool down. In June, the US dollar index remained weak, and the 10 - year US inflation expectation was unclear in direction [76][78]