锌月报：宏观情绪转暖，累库不及预期-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Zinc ore supply remains at a high level, and TC continues to rise. The expectation of zinc ingot production increase is high. However, some zinc smelters are shifting to the production of zinc alloy ingots, and part of the zinc ingots are converted into in-transit inventory in the form of direct delivery to downstream, which cannot be well reflected in the accumulation of social inventory. Recently, the commodity atmosphere is favorable, and the long sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market is strong. The rapid upward movement of the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure also boosts the zinc price [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Price Review: In June, the lead price continued to rise. The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 3.4% at 17,205 yuan/ton, with the total open interest in unilateral trading decreasing by 0.83 thousand lots. The LME Lead 3M contract closed up 3.79% at $2,041.5/ton. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 110 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -25 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 50 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 60 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [11]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [11]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: This week, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons. The operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including those on US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs in China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis text is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 32.5 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.2% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to May, the total zinc ore output was 141.12 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.5%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 49.15 million dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 85.3% and a month - on - month change of -0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 220.38 million dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 52.7% [25]. - Total Zinc Ore Supply: In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 54.62 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 25.7% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 240.29 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6%. As of the end of June, the port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons [27]. - Processing Fees: As of the end of June, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton [29]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In May 2025, the zinc ingot output was 54.94 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.1%. From January to May, the total zinc ingot output was 265.49 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.7%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 2.53 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -45.3% and a month - on - month change of -10.4%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 15.80 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -20.5%. In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 57.47 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -1.3% and a month - on - month change of -1.5%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 281.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - Stage Operating Rates: As of the end of June, the operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [40]. - Apparent Demand: In May 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 58.28 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of -8.3%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 279.75 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.2% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a shortage of -0.81 million tons. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.53 million tons [53]. - Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference: In March 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.98 million tons. From January to March, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 6.81 million tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [61]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [64]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [67]. - Position Analysis: The net long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai zinc increased, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc rose, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [70].