锰硅月报：预期持续扰动盘面，现实端无明显改善，建议以观望为主-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For manganese silicon, the fundamental situation points downward in the long - term, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, expected marginal weakening of future demand in Q3, and potential downward adjustments in manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short - term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high volatility and lack of a clear trend [15]. - For silicon iron, in the long - run, it may face the risk of weakening demand, especially in the coil sector and potential significant drops in hot metal production. In the short - term, it's also recommended to stay on the sidelines as the price is in a volatile state [96]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price situation: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 564 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week and 290 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures主力 (SM509) closed at 5712 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week and 290 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; basis was 118 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.04% [14][20]. - Profit and cost: Manganese silicon's estimated spot profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 184 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 302 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 510 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5734 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5801 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6060 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply and demand: Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 18.01 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. Weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, up 3.24 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week [14]. - Inventory: Estimated visible manganese silicon inventory was 67.03 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [14]. - Strategy: In the current high - volatility and trend - less situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of July 3, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 564 yuan/ton, futures主力 (SM509) closed at 5712 yuan/ton, basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.04%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: As of July 3, 2025, estimated spot profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 184 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 302 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 510 yuan/ton [25]. - Production cost: As of July 3, 2025, estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5734 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5801 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6060 yuan/ton. Main manganese ore prices and power prices were relatively stable [27][30]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 3, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 18.01 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output down about 2.99% year - on - year. In May 2025, Steel Union's manganese silicon output was 74.3 tons, down 6.29 tons month - on - month [44]. - Demand: Weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, up 3.24 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output down about 4.58% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [58][61]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of July 3, 2025, estimated visible manganese silicon inventory was 67.03 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [70]. - Steel mill inventory: In June, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.49 days, up 0.34 days month - on - month, still relatively low [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - This week, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.28%. In the short - term, it's expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [79]. Silicon Iron 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price situation: As of July 3, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, the futures主力 (SF509) closed at 5390 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.10%, at a relatively neutral historical level [95]. - Profit and cost: Estimated spot profit of silicon iron remained in a loss state, with Inner Mongolia at - 438 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 304 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at - 452 yuan/ton. Main production costs were relatively stable [95]. - Supply and demand: Steel Union's weekly silicon iron output was 10.02 tons, up 0.27 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron was 16.53 tons, down 2.73 tons year - on - year [94][95]. - Inventory: Estimated visible silicon iron inventory was 13.58 tons, up 1.48 tons week - on - week, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [94]. - Strategy: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high volatility and lack of a clear trend [96]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of July 3, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, the futures主力 (SF509) closed at 5390 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.10%, at a relatively neutral historical level [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: As of July 3, 2025, estimated spot profit of silicon iron remained in a loss state, with Inner Mongolia at - 438 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 304 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at - 452 yuan/ton [106]. - Production cost: As of July 3, 2025, main production costs were relatively stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5538 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 5454 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at 5602 yuan/ton [112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 3, 2025, Steel Union's weekly silicon iron output was 10.02 tons, up 0.27 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output up about 2.45% year - on - year. In May 2025, silicon iron output was 41.48 tons, down 2.53 tons month - on - month [117]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron was 16.53 tons, down 2.73 tons year - on - year [94][126]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of July 3, 2025, estimated visible silicon iron inventory was 13.58 tons, up 1.48 tons week - on - week, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [140]. - Steel mill inventory: In May, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills was 15.38 days, up 0.18 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low historical level [143]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - This week, the silicon iron futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 6 yuan/ton or - 0.11% and a weekly amplitude of 4.5%. In the short - term, there is obvious pressure around 5500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and not blindly buy at the bottom [146].