有色金属行业2025年中期策略报告：新秩序、新经济：金属的重新锚定与价值重估-20250704

Group 1: New Order - Gold's Revaluation - Gold's long-term turning points are generally marked by turning points in the US economy, particularly shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Recent geopolitical shifts and high debt levels have weakened the dollar's credibility, leading to a revaluation of gold's value as a safe haven asset [7][66]. - The current uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of inflation due to Trump's tariff policies complicates the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, making it difficult to predict economic recovery in the short term [7][66]. - The disintegration and reconstruction of the international order have led to a resurgence of gold's financial and monetary attributes, suggesting that while gold may experience short-term corrections, its long-term value remains strong [7][66]. Group 2: New Economy - Copper's Value Reassessment - Copper is expected to undergo a two-fold revaluation due to long-term supply constraints and rapid growth in new economic demands, particularly in energy transition and data centers [7][66]. - The geopolitical landscape has intensified concerns over copper supply shortages, with expectations that the US may impose a 25% tariff on copper imports by the end of 2025, further enhancing copper's strategic resource status [7][66]. - The demand for copper is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a 70% increase by 2050, driven by the electrification of industries and the rise of data centers [51][62]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the industry, emphasizing that gold is finding a new pricing anchor amid international turmoil, while copper is poised for revaluation driven by supply constraints and new economic demands [7][66].