国投期货化工日报-20250704

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Staple Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term market trends of various chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and policy news, showing different trends of narrow - range fluctuations, shock - strengthening, or high - pressure [2][3][4] - The long - term trends of some products are under pressure due to factors like supply increase and demand decline [8] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a continuous shock adjustment, with the East China basis dropping significantly and port inventory accumulation expectations being gradually realized [2] - Domestic device operation rate is down, and the operation rates of traditional downstream industries in the inland are also decreasing, with production enterprises slightly increasing inventory [2] - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to Iranian shipments and the operation of coastal olefin devices [2] Urea - The urea futures price first rose and then fell during the day, mainly driven by market rumors of the release of the second batch of export quotas [3] - After precipitation in the mainstream areas, downstream procurement was concentrated, and production enterprise inventory decreased. After the port inspection was relaxed, the port inventory increased significantly [3] - In the short term, the market is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but in the later period, as agricultural demand enters the off - season and supply remains sufficient, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - The polyolefin futures main contract continued to be narrowly sorted during the day, lacking short - term directional guidance [4] - The supply of polyethylene increased, while demand support was limited. The operation rate of the polypropylene device decreased, and downstream orders were insufficient, with the overall operation rate declining [4] Styrene - The styrene futures main contract rose slightly during the day, maintaining a sideways trend [6] - The cost - side support is insufficient, and there is obvious supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak and stable, with a possibility of a slight decrease [6] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA fluctuated and declined, and the industrial supply - demand pattern changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, basis, and spreads under pressure [7] - The import of ethylene glycol is uncertain, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock trend [7] - The prices of staple fiber and bottle chips followed the decline of raw materials. The operation rate of staple fiber increased, but downstream demand decreased. The bottle chip industry reduced production, and the spot processing margin was repaired [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a shock operation. There is an expected increase in supply in the future, while domestic demand is weak, and export orders may decline. In the long term, the futures price may be in a low - level shock [8] - Caustic soda is trending strongly. In the short term, it is driven by cost, but in the long term, it is under pressure due to supply increase [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices declined during the day. Although the sales in some areas improved and inventory decreased, processing orders were weak, and there is limited room for price increase [9] - Soda ash continued to accumulate inventory, and the futures price was weak. With reduced demand and short - term supply contraction, it is difficult for the price to rise significantly [9]