Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran dominated the rise and fall of crude oil prices. After the geopolitical conflict cooled down, the trading of polyolefins returned to the fundamental logic. The profit of oil - based and PDH - based production was restored. In June, the production capacity of polyolefins faced great pressure, but the pressure on polyethylene production capacity in the second half of the year was greatly relieved, while PP continued to be under pressure. It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate fluctuated at a low level. The market was waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase, and the crude oil price fluctuated at a low level. The United States imposed a 40% tariff on Vietnamese re - exports, which might hinder China's PP exports. It was expected that the LLDPE - PP price spread would continue to fluctuate and strengthen from July [2][16]. - The recommended strategy was to buy the LLDPE - PP price spread at low levels [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: The market was waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase, and crude oil prices fluctuated at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins decreased, with upstream inventory reduction and mid - stream trader inventory accumulation [16]. - Cost: WTI crude oil rose 6.37% this month, Brent crude oil rose 5.30%, coal price fell - 1.69%, methanol rose 7.64%, ethylene rose 14.46%, propylene rose 3.83%, and propane fell - 4.20%. The oil price rose and then fell, having a significant impact on the cost side, and the cost side's influence on the trading logic of the futures market increased this month [16]. - Supply: The PE capacity utilization rate was 78.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%, a year - on - year increase of 0.72%, and an increase of 0.42% compared with the five - year average. The PP capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%, a year - on - year increase of 6.37%, and a decrease of - 14.75% compared with the five - year average. The production pressure in the second quarter was large, with production capacity put into operation in June and no new capacity in July [16]. - Import and Export: In May, domestic PE imports were 1.0682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 15.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.84%. PP imports were 167,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.60% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.60%. Exports decreased in the off - peak season. In May, PE exports were 105,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.67% and a year - on - year increase of 40.53%. PP exports were 276,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% and a year - on - year increase of 35.89%. The increase of the Vietnamese re - export tariff to the United States to 40% might hinder China's PP exports [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.91% and a year - on - year decrease of - 7.20%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 48.80%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.42% and a year - on - year decrease of - 1.63%. It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the overall operating rate was lower than that of the previous year [16]. - Inventory: PE production enterprises' inventory was 438,400 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 15.32% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 5.46%. PE traders' inventory was 61,400 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 5.27% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 7.19%. PP production enterprises' inventory was 570,100 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 5.78% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 10.70%. PP traders' inventory was 149,700 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 1.42% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 1.12%. PP port inventory was 65,300 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 1.66% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 4.95% [16]. - Next Month's Forecast: The reference fluctuation range for polyethylene (L2509) was (7000 - 7300), and for polypropylene (PP2509) was (6900 - 7200) [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy the LLDPE - PP price spread at low levels [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts were provided to show the term structure, main contract price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, registered warehouse receipts, and price differences of LLDPE and PP, as well as the price differences between LLDPE and PP, and the import and export volume of PE and PP [32][46][66][68]. 3. Cost Side - The cost side was affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices. The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane all changed. The profitability of different production methods of PE and PP, such as oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based, was also analyzed. Additionally, the price, supply, demand, inventory, and import and export situation of LPG were studied [16][77][103]. 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - The proportion of raw materials for PE production was presented. The production capacity, production capacity utilization rate, and production capacity expansion plan of PE were also analyzed. In 2025, 3.53 million tons of PE production capacity had been put into operation, and 1.5 million tons were yet to be put into operation [138][144]. 5. Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - The inventory situation of PE production enterprises and traders was analyzed, including month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The import and export volume of PE was also provided, along with the predicted import volume in June [16][17]. 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate of PE was low, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decline. It was expected that the downstream operating rate in July would continue to decline seasonally [16][17]. 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - The production capacity utilization rate of PP was analyzed. In the second quarter, the production pressure was large, and there was no new production capacity in July [16]. 8. Polypropylene Inventory & Import and Export - The inventory situation of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports was analyzed, including month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The export volume of PP was provided, and it was predicted that the export volume in June would be about 230,000 tons. The increase of the Vietnamese re - export tariff to the United States to 40% might hinder China's PP exports [16][17]. 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate of PP was low, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decline. It was expected that the downstream operating rate in July would continue to decline seasonally [16][17].
聚烯烃月报：地缘冲突降温，成本支撑转弱-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-04 13:04