棉花月报：中美谈判预期利好，郑棉价格反弹-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the US cotton planting intention report was bearish as the USDA's estimated cotton planting area in the US for 2025 was higher than market expectations. Domestically, the expected positive outcome of the China - US negotiations at the end of June supported cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, the rapid strengthening of the basis was unfavorable for downstream consumption, the inventory reduction speed slowed down, and import quotas might be issued in the future. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be focused on the implementation of the China - US negotiation results [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Market Review: In June, US cotton futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. As of June 30, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 cents per pound from the previous month, a rise of 0.34%. The USDA's planting intention report showed that the estimated cotton planting area in the US for 2025 was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market's previous estimate of 9.735 million acres, and the actual planting area in 2024 was 11.183 million acres. As of June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, exceeding the level of the same period last year [9]. - Domestic Market Review: In June, Zhengzhou cotton prices rebounded. As of June 30, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 yuan per ton from the previous month, a rise of 3.5%. In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons. As of the end of May in the 2024/25 season (from August to the following July), China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86 million tons. On June 27, the Chinese and US sides further confirmed the details of the framework, and the US would cancel a series of restrictive measures against China [9]. - Viewpoints and Strategies: The US cotton planting intention report in June was bearish. Domestically, the expected positive outcome of the China - US negotiations supported cotton prices, but the rapid strengthening of the basis was unfavorable for downstream consumption, and import quotas might be issued. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the China - US negotiation results [9]. - Fundamental Assessment: As of June 30, 2025, the basis was 1,421 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan per ton, the spinning spot profit was - 1,762 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 245 yuan per ton, the FC index M 1% was 14,021 yuan per ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty was 14,637 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue the rebound trend, and attention should be paid to the China - US negotiation results [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Not provided [11] 3.2 Domestic Market Situation - Cotton Production: Relevant data on China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and national cotton processing volume are presented in figures [38][39] - Cotton Imports: In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons. As of the end of May in the 2024/25 season, cumulative imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86 million tons [9][40] - US Exports to China: Data on the US's cumulative and weekly export contract volumes to China are provided in figures [42][43] - Cotton Yarn Imports: Data on China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes are presented in figures [44][45] - Downstream Operating Rates: Data on the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories are provided in figures [46][47] - Cotton Sales and Transactions: Data on the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are presented in figures [48] - Cotton Inventory: Data on China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the combined monthly commercial and industrial inventory are presented in figures [49][50] - Spinning Mill Inventories: Data on the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills are presented in figures [51][52] 3.3 International Market Situation - CFTC Positions: Data on CFTC fund and commercial net positions are presented in figures [55][56] - US Planting Situation: Data on the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - to - excellent rate are presented in figures [57][58] - US Production Situation: Data on the bi - weekly and cumulative cotton processing volumes in the US are presented in figures [59][60] - US Yield and Planting Area: Data on the estimated US cotton yield and planting area are presented in figures [61][63] - US Export Contract Progress: Data on the US's current - year cumulative and weekly cotton export contract volumes are presented in figures [66][67] - US Export Shipment Volume: Data on the US's annual cumulative cotton export shipment volume and progress are presented in figures [68][69] - US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: Data on the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [70] - Brazil Yield and Planting Area: Data on Brazil's cotton planting area and yield are presented in figures [71][72] - Brazil Export Volume: Data on Brazil's cotton export volume are presented in figures [74][75] - Brazil Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: Data on Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [77] - India Yield and Planting Area: Data on India's cotton planting area and yield are presented in figures [79][80] - India Consumption and Imports/Exports: Data on India's cotton consumption, import, and export volumes are presented in figures [82][83] - India Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: Data on India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [85] 3.4 Spread Trend Review - China Cotton Price Index and Basis: Figures show the China cotton price index and the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - Import Profit: Figures show the price differences inside and outside the country under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty [29] - Zhengzhou Cotton Spread: Figures show the spreads of Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 and 9 - 1 [31] - Regional Spread and Spinning Mill Profit: Figures show the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's spot profit [32] - US Cotton Spread: Figures show the spreads of US cotton 12 - 3 and 7 - 12 contracts [34] - External Market Spread: Figures show the US - Brazil spread and the difference between FCindexM1% and CotlookA index 1% tariff [35]