铝月报：淡季背景下价格向上阻力加大-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the domestic commodity market atmosphere improved, but the sustainability of the bullish sentiment was questionable, and overseas trade situation was uncertain. Although the aluminum ingot inventory remained low, the expected increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season demand would pose resistance to the upward movement of aluminum prices. The domestic main contract was expected to trade in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M aluminum in the range of 2,500 - 2,650 US dollars/ton [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons, with a slight decline due to capacity replacement. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the overall operating capacity would remain high [13][79]. - Inventory & Spot: In June, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 57,000 tons to 462,000 tons, the bonded area inventory increased by about 3,000 tons to 119,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory increased slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 346,000 tons in June and increased slightly at the beginning of July [13][49][55]. - Imports and Exports: In May, the primary aluminum import volume decreased month - on - month, and the aluminum product export remained at a relatively high level. In June, the loss of Shanghai aluminum spot imports widened, which was unfavorable for imports and favorable for exports [13][105]. - Demand: In June, the downstream aluminum product operating rate declined marginally. In July, the production schedules of domestic air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 1.9%, 2.4%, and 4.2% respectively. The real - estate data remained weak, and the photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In June, aluminum prices fluctuated upwards. The Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 2.5%, and the LME aluminum rose 5.8% [26]. - Term Spread: In June, the decline in domestic social inventory led to an expansion of the monthly spread, which declined after the 2506 contract delivery but remained at a relatively high level [30]. - Spot Basis: In June, the aluminum ingot premium and discount in major domestic regions first rose and then fell. At the beginning of July, the spot in East China was slightly at a discount [33]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: The spot performance in South China was strong [38]. - LME Premium and Discount: In June, the LME aluminum Cash/3M discount shrank, and at the beginning of July, the discount was about 5.8 US dollars/ton [41]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: In June, the average domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was about 3,403 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively high level [46]. - Inventory: In June, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased to 462,000 tons, the bonded area inventory increased to 119,000 tons, the aluminum bar inventory increased to 159,000 tons, and the LME inventory decreased to 346,000 tons and increased slightly at the beginning of July [49][52][55]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: Since June, the domestic bauxite price has fluctuated slightly upwards, and the overseas bauxite price has remained stable [62]. - Alumina Price: In June, the domestic and overseas alumina prices both weakened [67]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In June, the anode price decreased, and the thermal coal price stabilized and rebounded [70]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In June, China's alumina actual operating capacity increased by 3.1%, the operating rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with sufficient supply [76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity decreased slightly, and the output decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. In July, the overall operating capacity would remain high [79]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: In June, the aluminum bar processing fee weakened, but the aluminum water ratio remained at a relatively high level. It was expected to decline in July [82]. 6. Demand Side - Aluminum Product Output and Aluminum Ingot Out - warehouse: In June, the aluminum ingot out - warehouse volume decreased month - on - month but remained higher than the same period last year [87]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In June, the aluminum bar operating rate was expected to increase slightly month - on - month, while the operating rates of aluminum profiles, plate - strip - foil, and some other products decreased [90][94]. - Terminal Demand: In July, the demand for home appliances weakened, the real - estate data remained weak, the automobile production and sales were okay, and the photovoltaic - related demand faced pressure [102]. 7. Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum: In May, the primary aluminum import volume decreased month - on - month, and the import loss widened in June [105]. - Aluminum Products: In May, the aluminum product export volume increased month - on - month, and the cumulative export volume from January to May decreased year - on - year [111]. - Bauxite and Alumina: In May, the bauxite import volume increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the alumina export volume increased significantly year - on - year [114].