国投期货黑色金属日报-20250704

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is influenced by supply - side reform expectations, with short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and policy changes [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to follow the trend of finished products, showing a relatively strong oscillation in the short term [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets face upward pressure on the futures due to inventory, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact currently [4][6]. - The silicomanganese market has limited fundamental improvement, with pressure at the 6750 level [7]. - The ferrosilicon market has a general driving force for continuous price rebound [8]. Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures rose first and then fell. Thread demand recovered, production increased, and inventory decreased slowly. Hot - rolled coil demand declined slightly, production remained high, and inventory accumulated slightly. Iron - making water production decreased but remained high. Concerns about negative feedback eased. The infrastructure recovery lacked sustainability, real - estate sales remained low, and the manufacturing industry had resilience. The supply - side reform expectations dominated the market, but substantial measures were yet to be implemented [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures oscillated, and the basis narrowed to a low level. Global iron ore shipments ended the end - of - season rush, with a downward expectation. Domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventory was basically flat. Terminal demand in the off - season was resilient, steel mill profitability was okay, and iron - making water production declined from a high level. Supply - side contraction expectations strengthened, and market sentiment improved. The iron ore fundamentals had limited contradictions, and it was expected to follow the finished products with a relatively strong oscillation [3]. Coke - Coke prices rose today. Coking plants had price - increase expectations, with meager profits, and daily production declined. Coke inventory decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly. The carbon supply was abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" was limited. The futures had a four - round premium, and there was upward pressure due to inventory [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose today. Coking coal mine production increased, spot auction improved, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. The carbon supply was abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" was limited. The futures had a premium, and there was upward pressure due to inventory [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated downward today. Due to previous production cuts, inventory decreased, but weekly production increased, and on - balance - sheet inventory increased. Manganese ore inventory was expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the current inventory was low, with stronger price - holding intentions of mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore were scarce, and the August 2025 shipment price to China decreased slightly. With the "anti - involution" expectation in steel, silicomanganese followed the upward trend of thread, but its fundamentals improved limitedly, with pressure at the 6750 level [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated downward today. Iron - making water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production increased, and secondary demand remained high. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, market transactions were average, on - balance - sheet inventory decreased, but production - end inventory increased. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction. With the "anti - involution" expectation in steel, ferrosilicon followed the upward trend of thread, but the driving force for continuous price rebound was general [8].