Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term ore price is expected to have some support, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina is still difficult to change. The alumina futures price will still be anchored by cost, with the ore price being the core contradiction. It is expected that the CIF price of Guinean bauxite will remain in the range of $70 - 85 per ton, corresponding to a smelting cost of 2700 - 3050 yuan per ton in Shandong and 3000 - 3300 yuan per ton in Shanxi. It is recommended to combine the overall commodity market sentiment and opportunistically lay out short positions at high prices. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan per ton [12]. Summary by Directory Monthly Assessment - As of July 4, the alumina index increased by 1.02% to 3011 yuan per ton compared with the price on June 3. The alumina futures price gradually declined due to the non - further fermentation of the "mining ban storm" in Guinea, and then stabilized and rebounded with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The Guinean government's announcement on July 2 may drive the futures price up, but the medium - term supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to change, and the rebound space is limited. The basis gradually declined, with the Shandong spot price at a premium of 66 yuan per ton over the main contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts fluctuated and was 59 yuan per ton as of July 4 [11]. - The spot price of alumina continued to decline in June as the supply returned to a loose state with the return of previously overhauled production capacity driven by profit recovery [11]. - As of July 4, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 8800 tons to 3.882 million tons, with different changes in various types of inventory. The alumina futures warehouse receipts decreased by 105,400 tons to 21,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse decreased by 119,700 tons to 65,000 tons [11]. Supply - side - In May 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 84.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.82% and a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. Inland alumina smelters faced losses, and the overhauled and reduced production capacity increased. In June, the previously overhauled capacity gradually returned due to profit improvement [12][45]. - In May 2025, the alumina production was 7.403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.06% and a month - on - month increase of 2.46%. The cumulative production in the first five months was 36.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.66% [42]. Period - Spot End - Futures price: As of July 4, the alumina index increased by 1.02% to 3011 yuan per ton compared with June 3. The price declined due to the non - further fermentation of the "mining ban storm" in Guinea, then rebounded with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The Guinean government's announcement may drive the price up, but the medium - term supply - demand surplus limits the rebound space. The basis gradually declined, with the Shandong spot price at a premium of 66 yuan per ton over the main contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts fluctuated and was 59 yuan per ton as of July 4 [22]. - Spot price: With the return of previously overhauled production capacity driven by profit recovery, the alumina supply became loose again, leading to a continuous decline in the spot price in June. As of July 3, 2025, the spot prices in different regions decreased significantly compared with the beginning of June [18]. Raw Material End - Bauxite price: The domestic bauxite price remained unchanged this month. As of July 4, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite was $74 per ton, and that of Australian bauxite was $69 per ton. The short - term ore price is expected to be under pressure. The "production restriction storm" in the Guinean AXIS mining area and the rainy season may reduce the supply after July, and the CIF price of Guinean bauxite is expected to remain in the range of $70 - 80 per ton this year [26]. - Bauxite production: In May 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. The cumulative production in the first five months was 25.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33% [28]. - Bauxite import: In May 2025, China imported 17.51 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 29.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 15.32%. The cumulative import in the first five months was 85.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.23%. The import from Guinea in May was 1322 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 20.97%. The cumulative import from Guinea in the first five months was 66.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.76%. The supply may tighten after July, and the inventory may decrease significantly in September and October [30][32]. - Bauxite inventory: As of July 4, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory remained at a relatively high level in the past four years, and the port inventory in China was 27.29 million tons, with a slowing accumulation trend. In May, the total bauxite inventory in China increased by 3.01 million tons to 44.17 million tons, with inventory increases in Shanxi and Henan [36][39]. Import and Export - In May 2025, the net export of alumina was 140,300 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 10,700 tons in the previous month to 67,500 tons, and the export volume decreased from 262,900 tons to 207,800 tons. The cumulative net export in the first five months was 1.0053 million tons. The export window shrank in May, and the net export decreased. It is expected that the export will further decline in June [12][52]. - As of July 4, the FOB price in Australia decreased by $6 per ton to $361 per ton, and the import profit and loss was - 85 yuan per ton, indicating a closed import window [55]. Demand - side - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.68% and a month - on - month increase of 3.51%. The cumulative production in the first five months was 18.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.77% [59]. - In May 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.13 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.26% month - on - month to 96.99% [62]. Inventory - As of July 4, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 8800 tons to 3.882 million tons, with different changes in electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, alumina plant inventory, in - transit inventory, and port inventory. The alumina futures warehouse receipts decreased by 105,400 tons to 21,300 tons, and the SHFE delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 119,700 tons to 65,000 tons [11][67][69].
氧化铝月报：矿端扰动持续，期价维持宽幅震荡-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-04 13:20