Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June, tin prices fluctuated at high levels. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and transportation disruptions of tin mines in southern Myanmar via Thailand are expected to reduce China's tin ore imports by 500 - 1000 tons in June, intensifying the short - term supply shortage. In the smelting sector, raw material inventories in major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi are generally less than 30 days, and some smelting enterprises have started maintenance or gradient production cuts, further tightening refined tin supply. [11][12] - After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China declined, and the operating rates of some producers decreased. Orders in the consumer electronics and automotive electronics sectors grew weakly, and market sentiment was wait - and - see. Demand for tin in areas such as tinplate and chemicals was stable. As of June 27, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from the previous week. [11][12] - Overall, the short - term supply shortage of tin ore is obvious, and upstream enterprises have a strong sentiment of holding back sales. However, terminal demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate. It is expected that domestic tin prices will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and LME tin prices will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply Side: The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and transportation disruptions via Thailand are expected to reduce June tin ore imports by 500 - 1000 tons. Raw material inventories in major smelting areas are low, and some enterprises have cut production. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is only 46.84%. [11] - Imports and Exports: In May, tin ore and concentrate imports were 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. Unwrought non - alloy tin exports were 1770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 9584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. Unwrought non - alloy tin imports were 2076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 9508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91%. [11] - Demand Side: After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China declined. Orders in consumer electronics and automotive electronics grew weakly, while demand in tinplate and chemicals was stable. In June, the production schedule for household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, an 11.5% increase from the previous year; the refrigerator production schedule was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; and the washing machine production schedule was 6.75 million units, the same as the previous year. [11] - Conclusion: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton domestically and 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton on the LME in the short term. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Relevant figures such as the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented, but no specific text analysis of the market situation is provided. [19][20] 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: Figures for tin export and import profits are shown, but no specific analysis of profit trends is provided. [25][26] - Inventory: As of June 27, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from the previous week. LME inventory remained at a low level. [11][28] 4. Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain at a low level. [34] 5. Supply Side - Production: Affected by raw material shortages and low processing fees, the refined tin output in May was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. [39] - Imports and Exports: In May, tin ore and concentrate imports were 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. Unwrought non - alloy tin exports were 1770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 9584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. Unwrought non - alloy tin imports were 2076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 9508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91%. [42] 6. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the rise in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption dominated, and the increase was mainly from photovoltaic module production and semiconductor consumption recovery. Overseas, semiconductor consumption recovery also drove tin consumption growth, but overall growth was slower than in China, showing an internal - strong - external - weak trend. [50] - Semiconductor: China's semiconductor sales year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. [55] - Photovoltaic: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with obvious production growth. In June, the component production schedule decreased significantly month - on - month. [61] - White Goods: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in July 2025 was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease from the previous year. Specifically, the air conditioner production schedule was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease; the refrigerator production schedule was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease; and the washing machine production schedule was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease. [70]
锡月报：矿端紧缺延续，锡价震荡运行-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-04 13:26