广金期货策略早餐-20250704

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term (20500 - 20700) and remain at a high level in the medium - term (19200 - 21000) [1]. - Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils): In the short - term, there will be a switch between long and short positions with a weakened downward drive, and it will stop falling and stabilize in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Category Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - Intraday View: Aluminum is expected to run strongly, with an operating range of 20500 - 20700 [1]. - Medium - term View: It will operate at a high level, with an operating range of 19200 - 21000 [1]. - Reference Strategy: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [1]. - Core Logic: Limited capacity increase space, low inventory at a 5 - year low, and a positive automotive market support the aluminum price [1]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Intraday View: Short - term long - short switching with a weakened downward drive [2]. - Medium - term View: Stop falling and stabilize [2]. - Reference Strategy: Buy RB2510 at - the - money call options; short - term sell RB2510 straddle options (range 2900 - 3200) [3]. - Core Logic: - Supply: After mid - July, the raw material inventory pressure of steel will be marginally relieved, supporting the cost of steel production. The supply pressure of imported iron ore will decrease, and coal and coke prices will stabilize and rebound [3]. - Demand: Although the overall downstream consumption of steel is weak, the low inventory, good plate demand, and positive factors such as the improvement in Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expectation of Fed rate cuts will boost speculative demand [4].