总量双周报：开启新征程-20250704

Macroeconomic Insights - Consumption has exceeded expectations, with May data showing a further recovery in consumer spending, slightly surpassing market forecasts[1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains negative year-on-year, but core inflation has stabilized above 0.5%[1] - Industrial added value growth rate fell to 5.8% year-on-year in May, indicating moderate production levels[1] A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is positioned at the beginning of a new structural slow bull market, with a significant breakthrough at 3400 points expected to mark a new journey[3] - The ongoing trade tensions and the strengthening of China's manufacturing sector are expected to enhance global trade dynamics and investor confidence[3] - The stock market's attractiveness is increasing as interest rates decline, with a notable rise in stock fund issuance compared to the previous year[3] Bond Market Overview - The yield on 1-year government bonds has decreased by 5 basis points to 1.35%, reflecting a relatively ample liquidity environment[5] - The central bank's liquidity support and a weak economic backdrop are the primary drivers for the bond market's stability[5] - The market anticipates a slight decline in total growth data in Q3 due to diminishing export effects[5] Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable expansion, with a focus on technology and consumption sectors[6] - The banking index has outperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 3.32%[24] - High-dividend stocks in the banking sector are becoming increasingly attractive as interest rates decline[6] Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales have seen an expanded decline, with a year-to-date cumulative sales area growth of only 0.2%[7] - The central bank is emphasizing the implementation of incremental policies to stabilize the real estate market[7] - The second-hand housing market has shown signs of recovery, with a year-to-date cumulative sales area growth of 26.1%[7] Securities Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in daily trading volumes have increased from below 1.1 trillion to 1.6 trillion, indicating heightened market activity[8] - The introduction of new policies for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to facilitate financing for quality tech companies[9] - The securities sector is likely to benefit from the government's initiatives to boost domestic demand and consumption[8]