流动性跟踪：1.3%的隔夜能持续吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market is expected to enter a relatively comfortable range in July, supported by seasonal patterns and the central bank's supportive attitude. However, there are still some disturbances in July, and attention should be paid to the periodic pressure on the capital market [2][17][20] - Next week, the pressure of maturing certificates of deposit and the net payment scale of government bonds will increase, but the capital market at the beginning of the month is expected to remain balanced and loose. With the central bank's support, the capital price may continue to run at a relatively low level [3][27] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. 1.3% Overnight Rate Sustainability - The central bank's large - scale injection supported the cross - quarter capital market, with seasonal increases in capital prices and overall stability. After the cross - quarter period, the central bank's large - scale net withdrawal did not change the loosening trend of the capital market, and the lending of large banks rebounded rapidly, leading to a decline in capital and certificate of deposit prices [1][12] - In July, the capital market may enter a comfortable range, but there are disturbances such as tax payments and MLF withdrawals in the middle of the month, and attention should be paid to the central bank's injection [2][20][25] 3.2 2. Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Pressure Declines - From June 30 to July 4, the net reverse repurchase investment in the open market was - 13753 billion yuan. From July 7 to July 11, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [4][32][33] 3.3 3. Government Bonds: Local Bond Issuance Exceeds 2000 Billion Yuan Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 341 billion yuan. Next week, government bond issuance will drop to 2020 billion yuan, with no treasury bond issuance and 2020 billion yuan of local bond issuance. The net payment of treasury bonds is 1599 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is 1112 billion yuan [38] 3.4 4. Excess Reserve Tracking Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be about 0.85%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.3 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.64 pct [43] 3.5 5. Money Market: This Week's Capital Interest Rates Declined - Compared with June 27, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 decreased by 5.43BP, 27.46BP, 9.94BP, and 43.2BP respectively to 1.31%, 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.49% [6][46] - The overnight and 7 - day SHIBOR rates decreased by 1.34BP and 9.32BP respectively to 1.37% and 1.63%. The overnight and 7 - day CNH HIBOR rates decreased by 5.91BP and 9.56BP respectively to 1.76% and 1.81% [51] 3.6 6. Interbank Certificates of Deposit 6.1 Primary Market: This Week's Certificate of Deposit Issuance Scale Continued to Decline - From June 30 to July 4, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 2429 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 339 billion yuan. Compared with last week, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing increased [69] - By issuer, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale, and city commercial banks had the highest net financing. By term, 1 - year certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale and net financing [69] - Next week, the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit will be 5213 billion yuan, an increase from this week [70][80] 6.2 Secondary Market: Yields Broke Through the Previous Low - This week, the secondary yields of certificates of deposit continued to decline, breaking through the previous low and mostly operating in the range of 1.5% - 1.6% [95] - The yields of certificates of deposit of all terms and grades decreased. The relative value of certificates of deposit changed compared with last week [95][101]