海外策略周报：本周欧洲和亚太市场震荡，港股进一步波动-20250705

Global Market Overview - European and Asia-Pacific markets experienced significant fluctuations this week, with Hong Kong stocks showing further volatility. The US stock market continued its rebound, while some trading days saw notable volatility in US stock futures. The TAMAMA Technology Index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rose to 34.9, indicating a high valuation, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E surged to 51.1, remaining above 50. The Nasdaq Index's P/E increased to 42.4, also above the 40 threshold, suggesting potential for valuation corrections in US tech stocks due to high valuations and uncertain fundamentals [1][3][10]. US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw gains this week, with increases of 1.72%, 1.62%, and 2.3% respectively. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio further rose to 38.31, significantly above historical averages. The VIX index is currently around 16, indicating a low volatility environment, but it may face upward pressure, leading to potential market fluctuations [2][10][14]. Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both declined, with drops of 1.52% and 1.75% respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.34%. The market is experiencing reduced trading volume, and high-valued assets are undergoing a rotation decline. The Hang Seng Index's P/E ratio has risen quickly, indicating a need for adjustment. There are expectations for further corrections in high-valued assets, while structurally sound low-valued assets may present buying opportunities amid volatility [1][22][26][34]. Economic Data - In May 2025, the Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth was 0.3%, down from 0.7%. In June 2025, Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth was 2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.1%. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was 49, up from 48.5, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% [3][36][39][42].