港股通科技ETF（159262）投资价值分析：科技浪潮窗口遇见穿越周期的投资选择

Investment Rating - The report rates the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong technology sector is positioned at the peak of the AI innovation wave, with the next 3-4 years expected to be a critical phase for the application and monetization of AI technologies [1]. - Historical trends from the US stock market indicate that during previous technology revolutions, the Nasdaq index significantly outperformed other periods, suggesting a similar pattern may emerge in the Hong Kong technology sector [1]. - The report highlights that the Hong Kong technology sector includes key players in AI, such as internet, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and software, all of which stand to benefit from AI advancements [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Technology Investment Trends - The AI technology cycle is entering a heated phase, with the current period being the third Kitchin cycle of the AI era, focusing on the development of large models [13][14]. - The internet sector is shifting from "traffic expansion" to "value cultivation," with significant growth potential in AI applications [20]. - Consumer electronics are set for a major upgrade driven by AI, with AI smartphones expected to increase from 18% of shipments in 2024 to 34% in 2025 [43]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the global market projected to reach $635.1 billion in 2024, a 19.8% year-on-year increase [49][52]. - The software industry, particularly SaaS, is expected to grow significantly, with the market projected to reach approximately 703 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 26.6% year-on-year growth [57]. 2. Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) Analysis - The HSSCITI focuses on high liquidity technology stocks, covering major sectors such as internet, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and software [61][62]. - The index has shown superior performance with a cumulative price return of 9.6% from 2022 to present, outperforming other indices [70]. - The index's annualized alpha is approximately 3.6%, indicating strong excess return potential compared to the Hang Seng Index [78]. 3. Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) Analysis - The ETF was launched on June 26, 2025, with a total size of 13.41 billion RMB, making it a significant player in the Hong Kong technology investment landscape [90]. - The fund manager, Xia Haoyang, has extensive experience in managing passive index funds, overseeing a total of 100 billion RMB in assets [91].