Minsheng Securities·2025-07-05 11:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on coal prices, anticipating a rebound due to increased demand from thermal power generation amid high temperatures [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant supply-demand gap, with domestic coal production and imports decreasing, leading to a total supply reduction of approximately 28.5 million tons, which is much higher than the demand reduction of 7.1 million tons [1][8]. - The report notes that thermal power generation has shown positive growth since late May, with electricity demand reaching historical highs due to rising temperatures, indicating a potential for increased coal demand [1][8]. - The expected peak coal price in mid-August is projected to exceed 750 RMB per ton, with a price midpoint of around 700 RMB per ton for the second half of the year [1][8]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - Domestic raw coal daily production has stabilized at around 13 million tons since April 2025, down from 13.48 million tons in the second half of 2024, leading to an estimated year-on-year reduction of about 19.5 million tons [1][8]. - Coal imports are expected to decrease by approximately 9 million tons year-on-year, contributing to a total supply reduction of 28.5 million tons [1][8]. Inventory - Port inventories are being depleted, with current levels aligning closely with the same period last year, while power plant inventories are lower than in 2023 and 2024 [1][8]. Demand Side - Thermal power generation has seen a year-on-year growth rate of 2.59% and 2.07% in June, reflecting improved electricity demand [1][8]. - The maximum national electricity load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, an increase of about 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts higher than the same period last year [1][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable performance and production growth, such as Huayang Co., Jin Control Coal Industry, and industry leaders like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [2][13]. - It also suggests monitoring companies benefiting from nuclear power growth, such as CGN Mining [2][13].