高频经济跟踪周报20250705：基建施工加速，对美航运价格回落-20250705

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation across various sectors, including demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market has a complex performance with new home sales having a mixed trend and second - hand home sales mostly declining. The automotive consumption is warming up, industrial production is stable with strong infrastructure construction, and there are specific changes in investment, trade, prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - New home sales: The weekly new home sales increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 3.498 million square meters, up 2% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. There were differences among different city - tiers, with second - tier cities seeing a large increase in new home sales [1][11]. - Second - hand home sales: The transaction volume of second - hand homes in key cities mostly decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction areas of second - hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou decreased by 10%, 4%, 5%, and 18% month - on - month respectively, and 14%, 7%, 9%, and 22% year - on - year respectively [28][30]. - Automotive consumption: It continued to warm up. As of the week ending July 4, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 18.4% month - on - month, and were basically the same as the same period last year. The national movie box office increased by 17.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased by 6.6% month - on - month, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month [39]. 2. Production - Mid - upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces and rebar decreased, while the operating rate of PTA, polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and petroleum asphalt plants increased, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction [2][46]. - Downstream: The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires of automobiles decreased, but the absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2]. 3. Investment - Rebar: The apparent consumption of rebar improved, with the price increasing by 0.9% month - on - month to 3230.6 points, and the apparent consumption increasing by 2.3% month - on - month to 2.25 million tons as of the week ending July 4 [63]. - Cement: The cement price decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 111.5 points as of the week ending July 4. As of the week ending June 27, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.8%, and the cement storage ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.8% [63]. 4. Trade - Export: The port container throughput decreased by 0.7% month - on - month as of the week ending July 4, but was higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 1.9% month - on - month. The freight rates of European and Southeast Asian routes increased, while those of the US West and East routes decreased. The BDI index continued to decline, dropping 10.3% month - on - month [77]. - Import: The container shipping price decreased, and the CICFI composite index was 685.4 points, a slight decrease of 0.6% month - on - month [77]. 5. Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The pork price increased by 0.8% month - on - month, while the prices of eggs, vegetables, and fruits decreased by 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.8% month - on - month respectively [5][89]. - PPI: Commodity prices were differentiated. The metal price index increased, the Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, the Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.8% month - on - month, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the LME copper spot price increased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][96]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next - week issuance plan: From July 7 to July 11, the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 268.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 58.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan with a net financing of - 80.1 billion yuan, the issuance of local bonds is 231.8 billion yuan with a net financing of 107.8 billion yuan, and the issuance of policy - bank bonds is 37 billion yuan with a net financing of 31 billion yuan [107]. - Issuance progress: As of July 4, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds this year was 1.8246 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 91.2%. The issuance of new general bonds was 452 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 56.5%. The issuance of new special bonds was 2.1635 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49.2% [6][109][112]. 7. Policy Week Observation - Central Financial and Economic Commission's 6th meeting: On July 1, Xi Jinping chaired the meeting to discuss promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [118]. - Central Bank's operation: In June, the central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond transactions, marking the sixth consecutive month of no such operations [119]. - China's PMI data: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of the economic prosperity level [120]. - US "Big and Beautiful" Act: On July 3 local time, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" Act, which is expected to increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [121]. - Trump's tariff statement: On July 4 local time, Trump said that countries will start paying new tariffs on August 1, but did not name specific countries [122]. - Nanjing's housing provident fund policy: Nanjing adjusted its housing provident fund policy, including expanding the scope of off - site loans, relaxing the conditions for off - site housing purchase withdrawals, and extending the maximum loan term for existing housing [123]. - Hubei's real - estate policy: On July 3, Jingmen, Hubei issued policies to stabilize the real - estate market, including promoting the sales of underground parking spaces and commercial and office buildings, and promoting the spot - house sales from January 1, 2026 [124].