Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The equity and convertible bond markets continued to rise this week, with the underlying stocks outperforming the convertible bonds. The convertible bond valuation entered a digestion phase after a significant increase. The overall market convertible bond premium rate per 100 yuan was 31%, with a slight weekly decline of 0.13%, and the latest quantile was at the 83.40% percentile since 2017. The valuation differentiation between high - and low - rated convertible bonds was not significant, both showing an oscillatory trend [4][6]. - The convertible bond market has entered a stage where the underlying stock elasticity is released and the convertible bond valuation is digested. It is recommended that investors maintain a dumbbell - shaped allocation. On one hand, with the expiration of base - position convertible bonds such as Pufa Convertible Bonds, the demand for base - position convertible bonds will further overflow, and the supply - demand relationship of large - cap blue - chip convertible bonds will become more imbalanced. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - grade convertible bonds with stable long - term fundamentals and short - term operational safety, and strategically increase the allocation of bank - related convertible bonds at low prices. On the other hand, small - cap growth convertible bonds will continue to benefit from loose liquidity and the AI + industry trend. Investors are advised to pay attention to opportunities in industries such as humanoid robots, AI +, and new consumption. In addition, as the average remaining term of the entire market approaches 2 years, investors are advised to pay attention to the downward - revision opportunities of low - priced, high - premium convertible bonds [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Outlook - In the past week, the Wind Convertible Bond Information Technology Index, Convertible Bond AA + Index, Convertible Bond Low - Price Index, and Convertible Bond Large - Cap Index led the gains. The underlying stocks rose significantly more than the convertible bonds, indicating that in the context of the equity market drive, the convertible bond market has entered a stage of releasing underlying stock elasticity and digesting convertible bond valuations. - Investment strategy: Maintain a dumbbell - shaped allocation. Focus on high - grade, fundamentally stable large - cap blue - chip convertible bonds and strategically increase the allocation of low - priced bank - related convertible bonds. Pay attention to opportunities in small - cap growth convertible bonds in industries such as humanoid robots, AI +, and new consumption. Also, focus on the downward - revision opportunities of low - priced, high - premium convertible bonds as the average remaining term approaches 2 years [1][5]. 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - The equity and convertible bond markets continued to rise this week, with the underlying stocks outperforming the convertible bonds. The convertible bond valuation entered a digestion phase after a significant increase. The overall market convertible bond premium rate per 100 yuan was 31%, with a slight weekly decline of 0.13%, and the latest quantile was at the 83.40% percentile since 2017. The valuation differentiation between high - and low - rated convertible bonds was not significant, both showing an oscillatory trend [4][6]. 3. Clause Tracking 3.1 Redemption - This week, Huitong Convertible Bond, Jingduan Convertible Bond, and Qilu Convertible Bond issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 13 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, and the potential maturity or conversion balance of forced - redemption and maturity convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones is 8 billion and 600 million yuan. There are currently 36 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 12 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Three convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [4][14][18]. 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Jingao Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision, and Qibin Convertible Bond, Caitong Convertible Bond, and Ruida Convertible Bond announced downward revisions. Among them, Caitong Convertible Bond did not revise to the bottom, while Qibin Convertible Bond and Ruida Convertible Bond revised to the bottom. As of now, 159 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 27 are restricted by net assets and cannot be revised downward, 2 have triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price without an announcement, 43 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 4 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not yet gone to the general meeting of shareholders [4][22]. 3.3 Put Option - No convertible bonds issued put - option announcements this week. As of now, 8 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 7 are in the non - downward - revision interval and 1 proposed a downward revision [25]. 4. Primary Issuance - Two convertible bonds issued issuance announcements this week. According to the latest announcements, there are no convertible bonds to be listed next week. As of now, there are 4 convertible bonds in the approved - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 9 billion yuan; and 3 convertible bonds in the listing - committee - approved progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 2.6 billion yuan [27].
转债周度跟踪20250704：正股弹性释放，转债消化估值-20250705
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-05 13:13