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6月美国非农数据点评:就业状况指数指向“halffull”还是“halfempty”?
Huachuang Securities·2025-07-05 13:46

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing market forecasts[2] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, while the labor participation rate decreased from 62.4% to 62.3%[2] - Hourly wage growth was lower than expected at 0.2% month-on-month, compared to the forecast of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.4%[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have significantly cooled, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 25.3% to 4.7% and September from 91% to 70.7%[2] - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock markets and the dollar index rose, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased[2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.77%, the Nasdaq by 1.02%, and the S&P 500 by 0.83%[2] Group 3: Employment Market Analysis - The employment market conditions index, based on 15 employment-related indicators, recorded 0.389, slightly better than the previous months but weaker than the end of last year[4] - Employment growth breadth remains at a cycle low since 2015, with the monthly employment diffusion index dropping from 51.8% to 49.6%[4] - Government sectors contributed 50% of the new jobs, with significant growth in education and healthcare services, while private sector job growth was below expectations[4]