流动性跟踪：存单发行利率创春节后新低

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - As of early July, the liquidity in the market has turned loose as expected, with a significant net withdrawal by the central bank exceeding 2500 billion CNY daily since July 1, reaching over 4500 billion CNY on some days[1][11] - The overnight funding rate has dropped below the OMO rate, with R001 decreasing from 2.30% on June 30 to 1.37% by July 4, while DR001 fell from 1.51% to 1.31%[1][11] - The issuance rate for one-year time deposits from state-owned banks has declined to below 1.60%, marking the lowest point since the Spring Festival this year[2][15] Group 2: Market Outlook - The liquidity is expected to stabilize in the upcoming week (July 7-11), with funding prices likely to remain low, and overnight rates fluctuating around OMO ±5bp[3][17] - A significant amount of 1.2 trillion CNY in reverse repos is set to mature in July, with 300 billion CNY in MLF also maturing, creating a potential liquidity gap of 1.3 trillion CNY until the MLF rollover[3][20] Group 3: Government Bonds and Bills - Government bond net payments increased to 2511 billion CNY from 341 billion CNY the previous week, with both national and local bonds seeing a rise in net payments[6][32] - The bill rates have generally increased, with the 1M bill rate rising by 32bp to 1.22% and the 3M rate up by 10bp to 1.20%[5][28] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit fell to 1.62%, down 2bp from the previous week, while the total maturity pressure increased to 5213 billion CNY for the week of July 7-11[7][40] - The total maturity scale for July is projected to be 2.8 trillion CNY, significantly lower than June's 4.2 trillion CNY[7][40]