Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-05 14:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the long-term investment value of leading traditional consumer companies after adjustments [1][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that leading companies in traditional consumption have adjusted and now possess long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective. It suggests that many food stocks with new consumption characteristics have already reflected expectations, and future performance will diverge based on actual results. The focus is on companies with genuine long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [1][6]. - In the liquor sector, slow macroeconomic recovery and limited consumption scenarios are expected to continue exerting pressure on sales and financial statements. Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a watch on Wuliangye, Jiansu, and Yingjia Gongjiu [1][6]. - For mass-market products, cost advantages are expected to support profitability, and emerging categories are anticipated to grow. The report recommends leading companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, and highlights growth opportunities in new retail formats driven by consumer trends towards self-indulgence, health, and convenience [1][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.62% increase last week, with liquor up by 1.20%. However, it underperformed the broader market by 0.79 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sub-sectors [5][41]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.54 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor slightly outperforming while others like snacks and beverages lagged behind [41][42]. 3. Liquor Pricing Updates - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1850 yuan, up 50 yuan week-on-week, while the box price is 1935 yuan, up 65 yuan. Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 905 yuan, and Guojiao 1573 is stable at around 860 yuan [7][23]. 4. Mass-Market Products Outlook - The report anticipates flat demand for mass-market products in the upcoming mid-year reports, with continued cost advantages. It highlights the dairy sector's potential for revenue and profit improvement due to supply-demand rebalancing and policy support [8][11]. 5. Key Company Updates - China Feihe expects a revenue of 9.1 to 9.3 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decline of 8% to 9% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory adjustments and reduced government subsidies [11]. 6. Important Announcements - The report includes various announcements regarding management changes and financial updates from companies like Yanghe and Jinzhongzi, indicating ongoing adjustments within the industry [12][13].