2025情绪价值系列报告之游戏：产品从换皮到长周期，游戏行业增长确定性提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry as of July 6, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The gaming industry shows strong resilience against macroeconomic headwinds, with a 18% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, significantly outperforming the retail sales growth of 4.6% [9][20]. - The report emphasizes the shift from short-cycle games to long-cycle projects, indicating a more stable revenue stream for companies focusing on long-term development [10][43]. - Regulatory changes, particularly the acceleration of game license approvals, are expected to enhance supply and improve the operating environment for gaming companies [31][22]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - The gaming industry in China is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, with total revenue reaching 857 billion, a 18% increase year-on-year, and mobile gaming revenue at 636 billion, growing by 20% [20]. - The report highlights the favorable policy environment that has led to an increase in the efficiency of game license approvals, with a notable rise in the number of licenses issued monthly [26][27]. - AI technology is driving the longevity of head games, with a focus on long-cycle game categories such as competitive and strategy games [33][43]. Overseas Market - Chinese gaming companies are expected to continue increasing their market share overseas, with the share of mobile games from Chinese developers rising from 22% in 2018 to 28% in 2024 [9]. - The report notes that the support for overseas expansion and the reduction of regulatory barriers will enhance the competitiveness of Chinese gaming products in international markets [2][2]. Industry Catalysts - Ongoing global litigation against Apple regarding its monopolistic practices is anticipated to lead to significant improvements in profit margins for gaming companies in China once regulatory changes are implemented [12][10]. - The transition from a focus on short-cycle games to long-cycle projects is expected to create a valuation differentiation between companies that excel in long-cycle game development and those that do not [10][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with advantages in gaming channels and long-cycle products, such as Xindong Company, Tencent Holdings, ST Huatuo, Giant Network, and Kaiying Network, which are expected to benefit from recent regulatory changes [4][14]. - Companies with significant project reserves for the year, including 37 Interactive Entertainment, G-bits, Perfect World, NetEase, and Shenzhou Taiyue, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4][15].