棉花周报：等待政策明朗，郑棉走势纠结-20250706

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend became entangled. The spot market in Xinjiang maintained a high basis, and the warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity, and the expected impact of the policy might be reduced. - Internationally, the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - The operation suggestion was to focus on short - term trading [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Cotton Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 0.15% this week after rising and then falling, while ICE cotton futures weakened with a weekly decline of 1.28% [9]. - Spot Prices: This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose 85 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose 91 yuan/ton [14]. - Cotton Import Situation: In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [16]. - Cotton Inventory Situation: In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons, and the industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [25]. - Downstream Inventory Situation: In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [30]. - Yarn Prices: This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OEC10S yarn rose 20 yuan/ton, C32S yarn rose 40 yuan/ton, and JC40S yarn rose 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 191. There were 10,140 warehouse receipts and 266 valid forecasts, totaling 10,406 [38]. - US Cotton Export Situation: As of June 26, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 23,700 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 106,600 bales [41][44]. 后市展望 - Domestic Market: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend was entangled. The basis in Xinjiang remained high, and warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity [50]. - International Market: The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - Operation Suggestion: Focus on short - term trading [50].