Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the window period after the China - US tariff policy negotiation lasts until July 9th. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment fluctuations that may be brought about by subsequent tariff policy changes [145]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the price range from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. Key factors include potential cost increases due to bauxite price hikes in Guinea, supply glut from复产 and new - capacity releases, low futures inventory, and policies promoting the exit of backward产能 [145]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is predicted to fluctuate, with the price range from 19,500 to 21,000 yuan/ton. The supply will remain high, but the demand is in a seasonal slump, and the inventory support may weaken [146]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate. High raw material costs support prices, while weak demand during the off - season restricts upward movement [146]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Macro - environment: On July 1st, the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governance of low - price disorderly competition, product quality improvement, and the exit of backward产能. The US reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, a negative growth since March 2023. Guinea announced bauxite industry reforms, including creating a bauxite index [8]. - Spot Market: As of July 4th, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,115.75 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan/ton from June 27th. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27th [8]. - Supply Side: As of July 3rd, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.97%, down 0.3% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%, and the cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [11]. - Demand Side: As of July 3rd, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in May was 49.83%, below the boom - bust line [12][68]. - Cost and Profit: As of July 3rd, the average full - cost of alumina was about 2,863 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from June 27th, with an average profit of about 250 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,507 yuan/ton, down 357 yuan/ton from June 27th, and the average profit expanded to about 4,350 yuan/ton [12]. - Inventory: As of July 3rd, the aluminum ingot inventory was 474,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th, and the aluminum rod inventory was 153,500 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th [13]. - Market Trends: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a volatile and slightly upward trend [16]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis - Spot Market: As of July 4th, the domestic alumina spot price stopped falling and rebounded, with the spot premium narrowing to 76 yuan/ton. Future prices are expected to be under downward pressure due to increased supply willingness [28]. - Supply: As of July 3rd, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.97%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The total operating capacity is 93.45 million tons, and a new roasting production line is planned to be put into operation in mid - to - late July, which is bearish for prices in the long run [32]. - Import and Export: As of July 3rd, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 361.6 US dollars/ton, down nearly 9 US dollars/ton from June 27th. Both import and export windows are closed [34]. - Cost and Profit: As of July 3rd, the average full - cost of alumina was about 2,863 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from June 27th, and the average profit was about 250 yuan/ton, with normal profitability [37]. - Inventory: As of July 3rd, the alumina port inventory was 43,000 tons, up 17,400 tons from the previous week, at a four - year low. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, while exports increased year - on - year [41][42]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side: As of July 3rd, coal prices in Yulin slightly increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The hydropower price in Yunnan in June decreased to about 0.41 yuan/kWh. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas decreased this week [50][53]. - Cost and Profit: As of July 3rd, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,507 yuan/ton, down 357 yuan/ton from June 27th, mainly due to lower power costs. The average industry profit expanded to about 4,350 yuan/ton [55]. - Supply Side: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity operating rate in June was 96%, unchanged from the previous month [57]. - Spot Market: As of July 4th, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27th [60]. - Aluminum Price and Premium: This week, the SHFE Aluminum main contract was volatile and slightly weak, and the spot price was volatile and falling, with the spot turning to a discount. LME Aluminum was volatile and slightly strong, with a spot discount [67]. - Demand Side: As of July 3rd, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in May was 49.83%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a deepening of the off - season effect [68]. - Inventory: As of July 3rd, the aluminum ingot inventory was 474,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th, and the aluminum rod inventory was 153,500 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports prices, but the support may weaken during the off - season [76]. - Futures Inventory: As of July 4th, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from June 27th. From June 27th to July 4th, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 11,775 tons to 356,975 tons [79]. - Import and Export: The aluminum ingot import profit window is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [82][88]. - Terminal Demand: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the new energy vehicle market is relatively bright. In June, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market and the new energy passenger vehicle market increased year - on - year [90][92]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - Raw Materials: The supply and price of scrap aluminum are important factors affecting the cost of aluminum alloy. The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and recent increases in copper and silicon prices also contribute to cost increases [18]. - ADC12 Spot Price: The average price of ADC12 shows seasonal fluctuations, and different regions have different price levels [111]. - Supply: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy are important indicators of supply [117]. - Demand: The automotive industry is the main demand side for cast aluminum alloy, and the demand has obvious seasonality [125][133]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy and the factory inventory of recycled aluminum alloy sample enterprises are important indicators of inventory status [134]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the market [138].
国信期货有色（铝产业链）：关税政策窗口期结束将至，关注宏观情绪变化对铝链冲击
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-06 03:03