计算机行业2025年度中期策略报告：寻找智能化与国产化结构性升级机遇-20250706

Core Insights - The computer industry is currently facing a core contradiction of insufficient effective demand, which is a characteristic of post-cycle products. The overall revenue of the computer industry has seen slight growth since 2020, but profits have declined due to expenses growing faster than revenue. In Q1 2025, the total revenue reached 139.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -470 million yuan, showing an improvement of 80.8% year-on-year [6][25][30]. Group 1: Demand and Market Dynamics - Effective demand is the core contradiction in the current computer sector, with the industry being post-cycle and reliant on capital expenditure following improvements in corporate profitability. The IT budget for Chinese enterprises is expected to decrease by 0.8% in 2025, marking the first decline since 2014 [23][25]. - The computer sector has experienced three phases this year: "DS/Main Line—Tariff Disputes—Theme Rotation." The release of DeepSeek-R1 and the rapid advancement of domestic large models have driven market enthusiasm, leading to significant excess returns in the sector [7][51]. Group 2: AI and Domesticization Opportunities - AI and domesticization are expected to be key points for breaking through demand constraints. The AI sector is transitioning from a focus on model iteration to application integration, with significant opportunities in cloud computing and AI agent applications [3][8]. - The intensifying US-China technology rivalry has highlighted the importance of self-sufficiency, leading to increased penetration rates of domestic products. Focus areas include databases, large PLCs, and industrial software, where domesticization rates remain low [9][23]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - The computer industry's profitability is under pressure, with a projected gross margin of 32.3% in 2024, down 1.13 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -140 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a decline of 101% [30][31]. - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a net profit of -470 million yuan, a significant improvement from -2.45 billion yuan in Q1 2024. The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 37.21 billion yuan, but this was a 19.4% year-on-year improvement [37][40]. Group 4: Sectoral Performance and Trends - The performance of various segments within the computer industry has been mixed, with AI and IT infrastructure showing growth while government IT and industrial software face challenges. The government sector is beginning to show signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [45][49]. - The overall market sentiment has improved since mid-April 2025, with the Longjiang Computer Index rising by 5.61% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 1.1% [51][56].