另类策略2025年度中期投资策略：全球视野看风格之港股的长期主义投资范式

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growing interest of investors in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the context of the AH premium and the sources of excess returns in the Hong Kong market [2][5][15] - It identifies that the investor structure and trading system of Hong Kong stocks are more aligned with overseas capital markets, which influences the selection of stocks based on foreign investor preferences [2][5] - The report highlights that both the US and Japanese markets, despite differing economic structures, share common characteristics in their long-term advantageous combinations, particularly strong shareholder return capabilities [2][5][6] Group 1: AH Premium Analysis - The AH premium is derived from five dimensions: fundamentals, industry structure, liquidity, investor structure, and trading systems [5][18] - The initiation and conclusion of excess returns in Hong Kong stocks are primarily influenced by changes in liquidity, as seen in the 2015 market dynamics [5][36] - The report notes that the performance of Hong Kong stocks has improved significantly since November 2024, with a notable increase in IPO activity and a trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [15][36] Group 2: Long-term Investment Paradigms - The report discusses the importance of shareholder returns in long-term investment strategies, drawing parallels between the US and Japanese markets [6][52] - It highlights that high dividend strategies in Japan have historically outperformed the Nikkei 225 index, particularly during periods of low growth and low interest rates [6][53][56] - In the US, the report notes that share buybacks have become a dominant strategy, contributing to significant outperformance of the S&P 500 buyback index over growth and benchmark indices [62][64] Group 3: High Dividend Opportunities - The report identifies that Hong Kong stocks benefit from a stable demand for high dividends, primarily driven by institutional investors such as insurance and social security funds [7][18] - It emphasizes that the dividend yield, payout ratio, and dividend growth of Hong Kong stocks are competitive on a global scale, particularly within the Hong Kong Stock Connect framework [7][18] - The report suggests that high dividend stocks in Hong Kong are positioned well for steady appreciation in a low interest rate environment [7][18] Group 4: Cash Flow and Growth Opportunities - The report indicates that capturing high-quality growth opportunities in Hong Kong stocks is often dependent on understanding industry trends and timely exits during market bubbles [6][30] - It suggests that companies entering a sustained profitability phase, recognized by international investors, represent the best stage for achieving long-term returns [6][30] - The report proposes constructing a portfolio based on cash flow quality and share buyback events to enhance investment returns in Hong Kong stocks [6][30]