Changjiang Securities·2025-07-06 05:43Core Insights - The home appliance sector, including major segments like white goods and black goods, is currently valued at relatively low levels, while the holding levels are at historical highs, with performance being the key driver for excess returns in the sector [3][20][32] - Domestic sales are expected to maintain high resilience due to national subsidies, while external sales will show high elasticity driven by increasing demand penetration in emerging markets and the rising market share of Chinese brands [3][7][8] Review: Performance-Driven Sector Achieving Excess Returns - As of June 20, 2025, the home appliance index has declined by 1.2%, ranking eighteenth among all major industries, with all segments except black goods achieving positive relative returns [20][21] - The home appliance sector's valuation is currently at a relative low, influenced by ongoing tariff fluctuations, with the kitchen appliance sector above the median [6][28][32] - The public fund holding ratio for the home appliance industry in Q1 2025 was 6.28%, with a slight increase of 0.14 percentage points, indicating a high allocation level historically [6][35][40] Resilience: National Subsidies Driving Domestic Demand - The continuation and expansion of national subsidies for home appliances have shown significant results, with retail sales of home appliances experiencing double-digit growth for eight consecutive months from September 2024 to April 2025 [7][44] - The average selling price of air conditioners has seen a controlled decline, with leading brands maintaining a positive price premium over the industry average [7][46] - Categories with low penetration, such as coffee machines and cleaning appliances, have shown strong growth, indicating a favorable competitive environment for profitability improvement [7][46] Elasticity: Limited Tariff Disturbances and Emerging Market Contributions - Despite high tariffs on Chinese home appliance products in the U.S., the impact on most listed companies is limited due to their low exposure to the U.S. market [8][30] - Emerging markets are expected to become significant sources of incremental exports for Chinese home appliances, with rapid penetration rates in regions like Latin America and the Middle East [8][30] Investment Recommendations: Focus on Quality Leaders with Growth Certainty - For the second half of 2025, it is recommended to focus on high-certainty growth leaders with low exposure to the U.S. market, such as Gree Electric, Midea Group, and Hisense Home Appliances [9][12] - Companies benefiting from domestic sales and the old-for-new replacement policy, like Aima Technology and Yadea Holdings, are also highlighted for their strong growth certainty [9][12] - Emerging leaders with U.S. exposure and strong brand power, such as Anker Innovations and Roborock, are recommended for their potential recovery [9][12]