海外市场点评：关税大限将至，市场需不需要担心？

Market Sentiment - The market appears to be underestimating the potential impact of the expiration of tariff exemptions, despite previous volatility caused by reciprocal tariffs in April[3] - The "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading strategy has become a market instinct, reflecting a belief that Trump will not take aggressive actions on tariffs[5] Economic Indicators - The passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act has led to a slight rebound in interest rates and the dollar, following a drop in unemployment rates and better-than-expected non-farm payroll data[4] - The market's optimism regarding interest rate cuts is seen as overly optimistic, with a significant probability of deviation from consensus expectations[4] Policy Implications - The "Great Beautiful" Act is projected to increase the fiscal deficit significantly, with Senate estimates at $3.366 trillion and House estimates at $2.416 trillion over ten years[15] - The current trade negotiations have only resulted in agreements with the UK, Vietnam, and Cambodia, indicating limited success in tariff negotiations[7] Political Dynamics - Trump's approval ratings have dropped, particularly in swing states, with a notable decline in support among lower-income voters, which may necessitate a shift in policy direction[16] - Elon Musk's recent criticisms of Trump's tax policies suggest a growing discontent among influential figures, potentially impacting Trump's political strategy[8] Risk Assessment - The likelihood of a return to April's tariff levels is assessed to be neutral at 50%, with potential for significant market adjustments if tariffs are increased unexpectedly[9] - Investors are advised to hedge against potential downturns and consider reducing exposure to risk assets in light of ongoing economic uncertainties[9]