Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the global oil and fat market operated in a complex and changeable pattern, with significant price differentiation among the three major oils and fats. The core drivers were the re - balancing of supply and demand, international trade policy games, and the transformation of the biodiesel industry. The global supply of oils and fats tended to be loose overall, while the structural evolution on the demand side became a key variable, with biodiesel policies dominating the long - term logic [4][101]. - The import volume of the domestic oil and fat market in the first half of the year was restricted by international trade frictions and customs clearance policies, and the consumption was weak overall. Inventory differentiation further highlighted structural contradictions [4][5][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 H1 Oil and Fat Market Review - In January, affected by the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures prices also increased. Spot - end basis prices changed accordingly [13]. - In February, palm oil futures prices soared due to Indonesia's policies and Brazil's soybean harvest progress, while soybean oil was affected by domestic soybean customs clearance and state - reserve sales, and rapeseed oil declined slightly [13]. - In March, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated, palm oil futures prices fell, and soybean oil futures prices fluctuated with the influence of South American soybeans [21]. - In April, palm oil and soybean oil futures prices declined due to factors such as OPEC + production increase and Brazilian soybean arrivals, while rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated [21]. - In May, palm oil futures prices fluctuated, soybean oil futures prices first rebounded and then declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices rose [27]. - In June, palm oil futures prices rebounded, soybean oil futures prices rose, and rapeseed oil futures prices fell. Spot - end basis prices generally weakened [29]. Global Oil and Fat Supply Analysis Global Soybean Supply Remains Loose - Global soybeans have had three consecutive years of production increases. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 426.8 million tons, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The global soybean ending inventory is expected to reach 125.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 22.08% [30][33]. - The weather in the US soybean - corn belt has improved, and the soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a good level, with a high probability of a bumper harvest [37]. Global Rapeseed Supply Recovers Significantly - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased due to frost in Europe and the Black Sea region. However, in the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 89.773 million tons, with significant increases in major producing countries [42][45]. - The overall growth of Canadian rapeseed is good, although there are some risks in the Manitoba region [53]. Global Palm Oil Enters the Seasonal Production Increase Period - In the first half of 2025, Malaysian palm oil production recovered after a low in January - February, and Indonesian palm oil production also reached multi - year highs in March - April [54]. - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil in May, and Malaysia lowered the export tariff in July. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy is restricted by subsidy funds [57][58]. Overseas Biodiesel Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - In 2025, global biodiesel production is expected to decline, with only Indonesia and Brazil showing an increase. The EU, the US, China, and India are expected to see a decrease in demand [61][62]. - Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% starting from August 1, which will boost soybean oil consumption [62]. Current Situation of the US Biodiesel Industry - In the first half of 2025, the US biodiesel industry faced pressure from falling crude oil prices and the 45Z policy. Industry profits were poor, and production was low. However, US soybean oil exports increased [64][67]. Impact of Future US Biodiesel Policies - The proposed US RVO plan for 2026 and 2027 will significantly increase the mandatory biodiesel blending volume, and the new 45Z policy will enhance the competitive advantage of US soybean oil. If implemented, it will have a long - term positive impact on the global oil and fat market [74][75]. Domestic Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Analysis Import - From January to April 2025, domestic direct imports of soybean oil decreased, and soybean imports decreased in the first four months and then increased in May. Rapeseed oil direct imports increased, while rapeseed imports decreased. Palm oil imports decreased in the first four months, and the import volume may gradually recover after June [76][81][86]. Consumption - The overall consumption of domestic oils and fats in the first half of 2025 was weak. Soybean oil consumption was affected by supply, and consumption is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. Rapeseed oil consumption was constrained by high inventory, and palm oil consumption was affected by price differentials and is expected to increase in the second half [87][88][92]. Inventory - As of June 20, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The national commercial inventory of rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, and the palm oil inventory decreased in the first half of the year and then rebounded [93][95][100].
供应恢复性增长，生柴政策成关键变量
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-06 06:21