2025年第27周周报：当前供需格局下，猪价涨势能否延续？-20250706

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig price is expected to face challenges in sustaining its short-term strength due to seasonal consumption fatigue and high current prices, leading to increased operational losses for enterprises [1][15] - The report emphasizes the undervaluation and expectation gap in the pig sector, highlighting the profitability of leading companies amidst low prices and policy guidance [2][16] - The pet sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating a robust growth in the pet economy [3][17] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white chickens and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens, with investment recommendations for leading companies [4][18] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding, with recommendations for key seed and agricultural companies [5][22] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly highlighting Haida Group [6][24] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - Current average pig price is 15.29 CNY/kg, up 5.01% from last week, with self-breeding profits around 182 CNY/head [1][15] - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.64 kg, showing a slight increase after six weeks of decline [1][15] - The report suggests a seasonal decline in pig prices due to high current prices and weak demand [1][15] - Emphasis on the low valuation and expectation gap in the pig sector, with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens recommended for investment [2][16] Pet Sector - Domestic brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food on platforms like Taobao [3][17] - Pet food exports reached 13.91 million tons in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.89% [3][17] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [3][17] Poultry Sector - Focus on the uncertainty in breeding for white chickens due to avian influenza outbreaks affecting imports [4][18] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and Yisheng Co. due to the expected recovery in the market [4][19] Planting Sector - The report highlights the importance of achieving higher yields to ensure food security, with a focus on the integration of good land, seeds, machinery, and methods [5][22] - Key companies recommended include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [5][22] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed sector [6][24] - The report notes a recovery in the aquaculture and feed industry after a prolonged downturn [6][24]