周观：央行买卖国债公告落地，债市仍震荡（2025年第26期）

Bond Market Outlook Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 0.5bp to 1.641% from June 30 to July 4, 2025. The smooth cross-quarter and loose funding were the main reasons for the decline. The view on the bond market remains unchanged, with the 10-year treasury bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and it is advisable to actively deploy at the upper edge of the range [1][2]. - The central bank's change in the announcement time of treasury bond transactions in June was beyond market expectations. It is a signal of active management of the funding situation, and the central bank may resume buying treasury bonds at an appropriate time, but short-term impacts on funding rates and short-term bond yields need to be considered [2]. - US Treasury bonds still have strong allocation appeal. The long-term yield may fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short-term yield is more likely to decline. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the portfolio duration [20][22]. - The Fed is less likely to cut interest rates in July, and the second half of the year may be a critical period for monetary policy adjustment. The timing of interest rate cuts depends on the inflation trajectory [34]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views - Analysis of the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield Movement: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 0.5bp to 1.641%. The yield was affected by factors such as monetary policy tone, PMI data, treasury bond issuance volume, stock market trends, and chip export restrictions [1]. - Analysis of US Economic Data and Treasury Bond Yield Trends: In June 2025, the US unemployment rate decreased, the hourly wage growth slowed down, the number of new non-farm payrolls increased, the manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations and rebounded, and the non-manufacturing PMI also improved. The yield of US Treasury bonds is still in the process of finding a trend, and the market has increased bets on the Fed's interest rate cut this year [3][6]. 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation - Liquidity Tracking: The net investment in the open market from June 30 to July 4, 2025, was -137.53 billion yuan. The money market interest rate generally declined, and the issuance volume and net financing of interest rate bonds changed [39][40]. - Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking: The total transaction area of commercial housing increased, steel prices generally rose, LME non-ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends, and prices of commodities such as coking coal, thermal coal, and crude oil also changed [56][60][73]. 3. Weekly Review of Local Government Bonds - Primary Market Issuance Overview: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, 23 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 72.139 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 81.288 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of -21.649 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive. Four provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and no province or city issued special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts [74][75][78]. - Secondary Market Overview: The stock of local government bonds was 51.75 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 539.892 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 1.04%. The top three provinces with active trading were Sichuan, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, and the top three active trading maturities were 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds generally declined [88][93]. - Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for the Month: The issuance plans of local government bonds in various provinces and cities from July 7 to July 11, 2025, are provided [95]. 4. Weekly Review of the Credit Bond Market - Primary Market Issuance Overview: A total of 222 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 214.267 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 136.128 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 78.139 billion yuan. The net financing amount increased by 80.122 billion yuan compared with last week. Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was -20.618 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 98.757 billion yuan [96][97]. - Issuance Interest Rates: The issuance interest rates of various bond types changed, with the short-term financing bill increasing by 3.77bp, the medium-term note increasing by 4.70bp, the enterprise bond increasing by 0.33bp, and the corporate bond decreasing by 3.32bp [109]. - Secondary Market Transaction Overview: The total transaction amount of credit bonds this week was 660.266 billion yuan. The trading volume of short-term financing bills was 184.468 billion yuan, medium-term notes was 348.028 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was 117.73 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 490.06 billion yuan, and PPN was 669.91 billion yuan [111]. - Maturity Yields: The maturity yields of various bond types generally declined, including national development bonds, short-term financing bills, medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds [113][114][116]. - Credit Spreads: The credit spreads of short-term financing bills and medium-term notes showed a differentiated trend, while those of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [119][120][125]. - Grade Spreads: The grade spreads of short-term financing bills and medium-term notes showed mixed trends, while those of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [130][133][136]. - Trading Activity: The top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 361.199 billion yuan [139]. - Subject Rating Changes: The subject ratings or outlooks of several issuers were upgraded, including Beixin Building Materials Group Co., Ltd., Xiamen Xiangyu Group Co., Ltd., etc. [140].