大炼化周报：成本对产品价格引导偏弱，炼化产品价差收窄-20250706

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [123]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the cost influence on product prices is weak, leading to a narrowing of refining product price spreads [1]. - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2637.62 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -23.83 CNY/ton (-0.90%), while the foreign key refining project price spread is 1631.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +370.34 CNY/ton (+29.37%) [2]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 68.02 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -1.78% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - In the refining sector, international oil prices experienced slight increases due to positive demand expectations, but were pressured by OPEC+ production increase plans [1][13]. - As of July 4, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were 68.30 and 66.50 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.53 and 0.98 USD/barrel compared to June 27, 2025 [1][13]. - Domestic refined oil prices have decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7267.29, 8276.14, and 6222.57 CNY/ton, respectively [13]. Chemical Sector Summary - The report notes that the rise in crude oil prices has a weak guiding influence on product prices, leading to an overall decline in chemical product spreads [1]. - Polyethylene prices have decreased due to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream manufacturers, while polypropylene prices have shown some support due to supply-side contractions [53]. - The average price of MMA has decreased slightly, while the price spread has improved [67]. Polyester Sector Summary - The polyester sector has seen a slight decline in price levels, with upstream PX supply slightly decreasing due to planned maintenance [81]. - The average price of PTA is reported at 4960.71 CNY/ton, with an average profit margin of -161.86 CNY/ton [90]. - The report highlights that the demand for polyester products is weakening, leading to a decrease in prices and profitability [88][102]. Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of July 4, 2025, include Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.91%), Hengli Petrochemical (-0.35%), and others [1][110]. - Over the past month, stock performance shows mixed results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down by 0.12% and Hengli Petrochemical down by 2.41% [110][111].