宏观经济宏观周报：频指标逆季节性上升-20250706

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in investment sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%, while retail sales total monthly year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to fall by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 11, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 4, 2025, is 2.19%, compared to the actual yield of 1.64%[19]