化工半年报：供需格局宽松，关注出口动态

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral, with an expected range - bound oscillation in the urea futures price in the second half of the year [2][10] 2. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - Cost: In the first half of the year, coal prices continued a weak trend, and natural gas prices remained stable. Urea upstream enterprises had decent profits, and factory operating rates were high under the support of policies. In the second half, coal prices may remain weak but with limited downside. Urea production profits will decline due to new capacity [7] - Supply: In the first half, urea capacity increased by 1.95 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 2.6%. More new devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of the second half. The annual output in 2025 is expected to exceed 72 million tons [7] - Import and Export: In the first half, the total volume of urea import and export remained low. Export policies have been relaxed since the second quarter, with a set export volume of about 2 million tons. Exports are expected to improve in the second half, but enterprises need to ensure domestic supply first [7] - Demand: In the first half, the total urea demand increased but at a slower pace, falling short of expectations. Industrial demand declined, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the third quarter, agricultural demand will enter the peak season [8] - Inventory: As of the end of June, urea enterprise inventories, port inventories, and South China social inventories were all higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected to enter a destocking cycle in the third quarter, but the inventory level will remain high [9][82] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with an expected range - bound oscillation [10] 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Review - In early 2025, the urea price rose slightly due to agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand. In March, the market was stable as reserve supplies were released. In the second quarter, the market was affected by US tariff policies, Middle - East geopolitical situations, and export policies. The price oscillated between 1,600 yuan/ton and 2,000 yuan/ton [17] Urea Capacity Release - Urea Production: In the first half of 2025, urea production was about 35.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The annual output in 2025 is expected to exceed 72 million tons. The new capacity in the first half was 1.95 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 2.6%. The full - year capacity growth rate is expected to be 6.6%, reaching 80.43 million tons/year [25] - 2025 China Urea Production Plan: The total new capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.03 million tons/year, with some already put into operation and others planned for the second half, mainly in the fourth quarter [33] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Urea Production Profit: In the first half of 2025, coal prices were weak, and natural gas prices were stable. Enterprises had good profits, and the operating rate was high. In the second half, coal prices may remain weak, and production profits will decline. Pay attention to the impact of coal price rebounds on costs and the change in upstream device loads caused by profit compression [34] - Urea Actual Operating Rate and Forecast: In the first half of 2025, the national average operating rate was 86.2%, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The coal - based urea operating rate increased significantly. In the second half, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain high, but the operating rate may decline slightly due to new capacity [47] Urea Import and Export - Total Urea Import and Export Volume: In the first half of 2025, the total import and export volume was low. From January to May, the import volume was 1,262.5 tons, and the export volume was 11,000 tons. Export policies have been relaxed since the second quarter, and exports are expected to improve in the second half, but enterprises need to ensure domestic supply first [52] - Urea Export Profit: In the first half of 2025, international urea prices were higher than domestic ones, but exports were restricted by policies. Since June, due to the intensification of the Middle - East conflict, international prices have risen significantly, and export profits have increased. It is expected that the export volume will increase in the third quarter [57] Urea Consumption and Inventory - Urea Downstream Consumption: In the first half of 2025, the total urea demand increased but at a slower pace, falling short of expectations. In the third quarter, agricultural demand will enter the peak season. The compound fertilizer operating rate was 41.6% in the first half, and it is expected to recover. The melamine operating rate was 63.6% in the first half, and industrial demand is not expected to improve significantly in the second half [66] - Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: As of the end of June, enterprise inventories, port inventories, and South China social inventories were all higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected to enter a destocking cycle in the third quarter, but the inventory level will remain high [82]