Orient Securities·2025-07-06 07:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7] Core Views - Geely Automobile has raised its annual sales target by 10.7%, from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting the company's confidence in its growth prospects [11] - The company's sales in June reached 236,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with electric vehicle sales growing by 85.5% [11] - The Galaxy series continues to show strong growth, with sales of 90,200 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 201.8% [11] - The report highlights that Geely's strategy is not merely about price cuts but is supported by technological advancements and strong cost control, which are expected to enhance profitability as scale effects are realized [11] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.50, 1.76, and 2.13 RMB respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.36, 1.54, and 1.94 RMB [4] - The target price is set at 22.50 RMB, equivalent to 24.69 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times the average for comparable companies [4] - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 179,204 million, 240,194 million, 319,444 million, 381,363 million, and 442,685 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 19.4%, and 16.1% respectively [6][12] - Operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3,806 million, 7,644 million, 14,116 million, 16,739 million, and 20,314 million RMB for the same period [6][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 5,308 million, 16,632 million, 15,121 million, 17,735 million, and 21,451 million RMB, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, -9.1%, 17.3%, and 21.0% respectively [6][12]