燃料油半年报：结构性因素仍存，燃料油市场或面临再平衡

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - Crude oil's current fundamentals are fair, but the outlook is weak, with the cost center likely to decline further in Q4 [11][15] - In H1 2025, the fuel oil market was significantly affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, with negative feedback on the high - sulfur end [11][26] - In H2 2025, the fuel oil market faces rebalancing, and structural factors still exist [11][51] - Refinery demand is under pressure; attention should be paid to demand improvement after economic viability returns [11][51] - Summer power generation demand is strong, and the substitution effect persists [11][74] - Bunker fuel demand still faces tariff risks, and the trend of consumption structure change continues [11][83] - High - sulfur fuel oil still has structural support, but OPEC's production increase has marginal negative impacts [11][102] - Low - sulfur fuel oil still has relatively abundant surplus capacity, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally [11][112] - High - sulfur fuel oil valuation still has room for correction, and the medium - term outlook for low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [11][129] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Market - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical and macro - factors. The initial price increase was followed by a decline, and then another sharp drop and rebound. The main influencing factors included US sanctions on Russia, Trump's policies, tariff conflicts, and the Israel - Iran conflict [15][16][17] - Currently, the crude oil market's fundamentals are fair, but in Q4, it is expected to enter a supply - surplus phase as OPEC's production increases and the peak demand season ends, leading to a potential weakening of cost support for downstream products [18] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In H1 2025, high - sulfur fuel oil was affected by sanctions on Iran and Russia, refinery disruptions in Russia, and increased demand from power generation and countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. However, high prices led to negative feedback, with reduced refinery demand and increased simple refinery production [27][28] - Refinery demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has declined this year due to high raw material costs and policy changes. If the cracking spread adjusts and profit margins improve, refinery procurement may increase, but China's import demand may not fully recover [51][54] - In Q3, power generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonality and natural gas substitution, but OPEC's production increase and early procurement in Egypt may limit the upside. Demand is expected to decline significantly in Q4 [74][75] - Bunker fuel demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by tariff risks. Although there was a short - term increase in Q2, the long - term outlook remains uncertain [83] - High - sulfur fuel oil has structural support from refinery upgrades and tight heavy - oil supply. However, OPEC's production increase has marginal negative impacts [102][103] - In H2, high - sulfur fuel oil needs an increase in other demand sources for market rebalancing. Refinery demand recovery is expected, but it depends on cracking spread adjustment [7][129] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In H1 2025, the low - sulfur fuel oil market was less volatile than the high - sulfur market. It was affected by tariff policies, regional demand changes, and refinery production adjustments. The market structure was relatively stable [29] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has abundant surplus capacity, and supply is mainly regulated by profit margins. Global and domestic production capacity can meet demand. Domestic production is expected to increase after the end of the refinery maintenance season [112][113] - Low - sulfur fuel oil's demand is at risk due to tariff policies and faces substitution by other fuels. The medium - term outlook is weak, but the downward drive is limited due to its low valuation [8][129] Strategies - High - sulfur: Oscillate weakly - Low - sulfur: Oscillate weakly - Cross - variety: Short the FU cracking spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies - Cross - term: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [9]