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规格提级后光伏反内卷成效终可期,继续看好风电、固态、特高压
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-07-06 08:36

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, emphasizing the importance of supply chain integration and government policies [1][5][24]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, with significant government intervention expected to address low-price competition and excess capacity [5][24]. - The wind energy sector is projected to maintain a robust installation capacity of over 100GW in 2026, despite a slowdown in bidding activity [1][12][24]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies, such as the U.S. "Big Beautiful Act," which alleviates uncertainties for solar and storage exports to the U.S. [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The "de-involution" initiative in the photovoltaic sector has reached a high level, with government meetings signaling strong administrative intervention to address pricing issues and capacity clearing [5][24]. - Supply chain integration is crucial, particularly in the silicon material segment, which is central to the current capacity surplus [5][24]. - The report anticipates a recovery in silicon prices, contingent on the downstream price transmission capabilities and collective self-discipline within the industry [5][24]. Wind Energy - The domestic price of onshore wind turbines has shown a recovery trend in Q2, with expectations for continued strong installation capacity in 2026 [1][12][24]. - The report notes that even with a slowdown in bidding, historical data suggests that installation figures will remain stable due to previously approved projects [12][24]. - The central government has reiterated its commitment to promoting orderly development in offshore wind energy [1][12][24]. Electric Grid - Recent approvals for high-voltage direct current projects indicate significant investment potential, with expected project investments exceeding 500 billion and 170 billion yuan for specific projects [2][14][15]. - The report highlights the anticipated increase in equipment bidding for high-voltage projects, projecting a breakthrough of 500 billion yuan in 2025 [15][17]. Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of lithium metal anodes, which can achieve higher energy densities compared to traditional materials [2][18][24]. - It suggests a focus on leading companies in various processing routes for lithium metal anodes, as well as solid-state battery technologies [18][24]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The extension of tax credits for hydrogen projects in the U.S. provides a critical window for industry development [3][23]. - The European Union's new framework for clean industrial support is expected to accelerate the deployment of green hydrogen projects [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various sectors, including photovoltaic glass manufacturers, battery cell producers, and offshore wind cable suppliers, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth [24].